narrative, what narrative?

The trend is much-discussed in political coverage, but it's equally prevalent in football. I'm speaking of our need to make sense of the big stories of the day by playing them into some kind of morality play context, as if somehow the fine margins of an offside decisions or whether the ball hits the post or goes inside the net has to come together to mean something bigger.

Speaking as a Cule, I couldn't blame fans of teams who've played big games against Barca in the past, say, 5 years if they got frustrated with being painted as the antagonist in Football As Art: the Musical. It's nonsense. I find it infuriating when Brazil get treated that way in the press, and I find it just as difficult to swallow when it's a team I support being given the idealized treatment.

Did it really mean something deep and profound when Barca advanced over Chelsea in last season's Champions League semi-final when they did it via a last-ditch goal and amidst so many contentious refereeing decisions? It certainly advanced the smaller narrative of Barca and Chelsea's grievances against each other, piling up from each of their explosive meetings in Europe, but beyond that, you'd have to ignore a lot of key facts to paint it as some kind of moral victory. It was a victory, sure, and one that easily made my week (okay, month), but let's not give it a gloss it doesn't deserve.

I'll give you the final - the victory over Manchester United probably could be taken as a vindication of Barca's commitment to its style, especially given the absence of key players, and of course it capped off Barca's treble. If you want to derive some meaning from that, feel free. It makes sense.

Like Guardiola pointed out in his (scrupulously gracious, no matter what quotes you've seen taken out of context) pre-match press conference for Barca-Inter, no matter what happened in that game, the Barca of the Six Cups had written their name into the club's history already. One game couldn't change that, for better or for worse. If we're talking narratives, I'll commit to that one.

But please, Arsenal aren't just a collection of too-young ingénues (more on age in a later post). Inter are not the Devil. Nor were Chelsea last season. Real, on the other hand...

I'm just kidding. But we'll have to wait until the end of the season too see how that narrative of sustained development versus sudden lavish investment plays out.


ETA: Almost forgot. You can follow me on Twitter @blackwhitengrey if you're that way inclined. Be warned: I tweet a lot of amusing Guardiola quotes.

La Liga: state of affairs in Europe

My take on Barca's win over Atletico will come later. For now, an update on how the Spanish teams are doing in European competition.

Champions League

The official UEFA website has the group standings after two games.

Sevilla 4-2 Slavia (Sevilla goals by Kanoute, Fabiano, Escude, and Kone)

I'm sure this victory came as a great relief to Juande Ramos, as it arrested a 4-game losing streak and gave them something to build on in the group. Fortunately for them, they have one of the easier groups, and should eventually progress - fingers crossed - despite their current dodgy form. For now, Sevilla sit second in the group with 3 points, level with Slavia.

Lazio 2-2 Real (Real goals by van Nistelrooy (2))

Not the result Schuster would have wanted, given Lazio's troubles in Serie A this season, but it was never going to an easy ground to go to, and a point is certainly good enough keep Real on track to progress. They have the advantage of two of Europe's greatest goalscorers in the Champions League, van Nistelrooy and Raul, and it's certain served them well so far. Real are top of the group, level with Olympiakos on 4 points, and poised to look down from their perch as the other three teams battle it out for the other spot.

(By the way, I see that Schuster has proclaimed Real's defence the best in Europe. Perhaps he has a very short memory?)

Valencia 1-2 Chelsea (Valencia goal by Villa)

Oh dear. Almost every journalist writing about this game presumed that Valencia would win, given the supposed chaos and discontent at Chelsea. I thought so too. Credit to Chelsea, they did very well to win the game, and Drogba's goal was sublime, but surely Valencia could have done better, especially after taking such an early lead. If conclusions are to be drawn from this game, one could perhaps say that Chelsea aren't nearly as bad as everyone feared given Mourinho's departure, and Valencia, despite their winning run in the league (which has just been broken this weekend) aren't quite in the best of form. From what I've seen, there's still some problems in midfield, and some would also point to the departure of Ayala in the last transfer window as the source of uncertainties in defence. In any case, Valencia are second in the group on 3 points, level with Schalke. I'm fairly confident in their ability to progress, but Schalke are a substantial lurking threat.

Stuttgart 0-2 Barcelona (goals by Puyol and Messi)

I've already written about this game, although not at length. I should probably mention that Stuttgart were very unlucky and probably deserved a goal, although as Frank Rijkaard said, Barca really should have put the game to bed in the first 30 minutes instead of wasting chance after chance. In the context of the group, Barca are top on 6 points, level with Rangers, which puts them into a good position heading into the double header with the Scots.

UEFA Cup

Given the great success of the Spanish clubs in last season's competition (3 of the semifinalists were Liga teams - Espanyol, Sevilla, and Osasuna) we can only hope that this season's entrants can do the same. Curiously, there are 4 completely different teams this time around (the other team from last season being relegated Celta Vigo). Sevilla of course have moved up in the world to the Champions League, while Espanyol and Osasuna's fine UEFA Cup runs affected their form in the league and the domestic cup and they could not qualify.

Zaragoza 2-1 Aris Thessaloniki (Zaragoza goals by Oliveira and Sergio Garcia; 2-2 agg, Aris win on away goals)

I can't help but like Zaragoza, who along with Villarreal seem to be the most 'South American' teams in the league. It was great to see them do so well last season and I looked forward to seeing them in European competition. Unfortunately, Zaragoza's early season slump in the league extended to their form in the UEFA Cup, and they were eliminated by the Greek side. It is no doubt an incredibly disappointing result for the club and their fans, but the one consolation is that they can now concentrate on getting their league form back, which they now seem to have done. This season's battle for European places looks likely to be fiercer than ever, and if they're to have another shot at European competition, Zaragoza have to have their act together.

Erciyesspor 0-5 Atletico (goals by Aguero (2), Jurado, Rodriguez, Forlan; 0-9 agg)

Having had a couple of scares in the Intertoto Cup, Atletico put on two displays befitting a club of their stature and cruised through into the group stages. Luis Garcia - who I'm pleased to see back in Spanish football - and 'Kun' Aguero were very impressive over the two legs. It remains to be seen how the gruelling schedule of UEFA Cup football will affect Atletico's challenge for at the very least a Champions League place given the deficiencies in their squad when it comes to the defence.

Twente 3-2 Getafe (Getafe goals by Belenguer and Granero; 3-3 agg, Getafe win on away goals)

Getafe, who qualified for the UEFA Cup because they were Copa del Rey finalists (having beaten Valencia and Barcelona over two legs to get there) barely scraped through to the group stages, having scored two goals and then conceded two in extra time. Given their struggles in La Liga, where they are second bottom on 2 points, having yet to win a single game, this is a pretty good result. However, if they continue to struggle in the league, I'm not sure an UEFA Cup campaign will be very helpful.

BATE 0-2 Villarreal (goals by Cani and Angel; 1-6 agg)

Villarreal have had such great results in recent years in European competition, and it's wonderful to see them back in Europe again. I'm hoping they can go far this season, given the quality of their squad. As in the case of Atletico, though, they have to be wary of the effects an UEFA Cup campaign can have on the struggle for a Champions League place in the league.


Here's one for nostalgic Barca fans: Henrik Larsson's Helsingborg overcame a 2-goal deficit in the first leg, winning 5-1 at home against Heerenveen of the Netherlands to go through 8-6 on aggregate. No prices for guessing who scored 3 of the 8 goals for the Swedish side over the two legs.


This is not Europe related, but for interest's sake, I thought I'd mention that we have a winner in the La Liga sack race: perhaps rather predictably, it's bottom club Levante's Abel Resino. Ironically, Resino was the man who took over in January and led the club to survival last season, but 1 point (!) from 7 games so far this season sealed his fate.

News ahead of the Atletico game

Stuttgart 0-2 Barca

A 2-0 away win against the German champions, who hadn't lost at home for 19 games - yeah, I'll take that. We've never had an easy time in Germany, and this was no different. This result, combined with Rangers' fantastic win, have left us very well placed in the group.

However, Rijkaard criticized the forward line for being wasteful and hinted that the star players would have to work harder. The players who were interviewed - including Valdes, Oleguer and Deco - seemed to agree.

"The only thing he can't do is play in goal." - Rijkaard on Andres Iniesta.

And damn right, too. Iniesta is a brilliant talent who is criminally underrated. Frankie also praised the crucial saves made by Valdes, the great job Abidal did as an emergency centerback, and the fitness of Ronaldinho.

Congratulations to Xavi for becoming the player who has played the most international club matches for Barca at 86 games, 70 of them in the Champions League. Remarkably, he's still only 27. His first Champions League game, incidentally, was that memorable 3-3 draw at Old Trafford in 1998.

Congratulations are also due to Leo Messi, who has scored 7 goals in his last 5 consecutive games for Barca. The Argentine is currently top of the scoring charts in both La Liga and the Champions League, despite not being an out and out striker. So you could say that he's got some form at the moment. This bests his record last season of 5 goals in 3 consecutive games. (It's worth pointing out that despite missing 3 months through injury and thus only playing 36 games for Barca last season, he managed 17 goals, a remarkable tally.)

So, 5 victories in a row, 15 goals scored, 3 conceded. Not bad. 11 of those goals came courtesy of Messi and Henry, which is a pretty scary statistic (the others are an own goal, Iniesta, Marquez and Puyol).

injury crisis time

This was the state of our defence after the Stuttgart game. Available players:

defensive midfield: Marc Crosas
rightback: Oleguer
central defence: Thuram (yes, we've only got one fit central defender. Oh dear.)

Thankfully, both Puyol and Milito trained on Thursday, so it seems that they will be fit to face Atletico Madrid, fingers crossed.

The news on Marquez is not as good. He's going to be out for a month with a torn muscle in his right leg, which means we've got no defensive midfielders for a month at the very least. Any more of this and I'm going to start missing Motta. (He's injured too? Oh. Poor guy.)

So here's the injury list as it stands currently:

Long term - Eto'o (2 months, torn leg muscle), Zambrotta (1-2 months, torn leg muscle), Toure (1-2 months, torn femoral biceps), Marquez (torn leg muscle), Edmilson (2-3 months, knee problems)

Short term - Gudjohnsen (knee trouble)

I'm starting to see a theme here with the long term injuries, and I don't like it.

Barca v Atletico

Atletico are never easy opponents for Barca, and the state of our defence does not inspire confidence at the moment. Mr Guardiola? Can you spare, say, your entire defence? The first team needs to borrow them.

On the other hand, our 'black beast' and former chief tormentor Fernando Torres has now left for Liverpool, which is nice, if not for the fact that he's been replaced by Diego Forlan.

The Barca website builds the game up thus:

All in all, Sunday’s match in the Camp Nou looks set to be a classic encounter: fourth versus fifth, two historic rivals, two attacking teams, the two top scorers and two teams in great form.

Atletico star Sergio 'Kun' Aguero has been speaking about the great start to the season made by both himself and good friend Leo Messi. The two little Argies top the goalscoring charts in Spain with 5 goals each. Not bad for a pair whose combined age is 39.

The game will also see the return of some familiar faces to the Camp Nou. Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, Thiago Motta is unfit and will not travel. Fellow youth team graduate Luis Garcia will be returning, though, and I hope he gets a good reception. I've always liked him, and he certainly contributed a lot to Barca's rise in the 03-04 season. Also returning will be Simao Sabrosa, who had the misfortune of being signed by Louis van Gaal at a time when he wasn't ready for La Liga. He has now developed into a mature player as well as a skilful one, and will no doubt be a handful for the Barca defence.


On a different note, here's a great article about Barcelona's cantera, or youth system.

Lastly, it seems like former Barca assistant coach Henk ten Cate, who is now coach of Ajax, will indeed be joining Chelsea - the club he branded 'pathetic', amongst other things, during Barca's turbulent meetings with them in 04-05 and 05-06 - as an assistant coach. This is the man who allegedly kicked a Chelsea staff member up the backside. I'm strangely saddened by this.

Farewell to Juliano Belletti

In a move that surprised many people, Barcelona rightback Juliano Belletti has been sold to Chelsea for 5.5 million euros.

On the Barca end of things, out of the group of players who were said to be expendable (Motta, Ezquerro and Gudjohnsen being the other names on it), Belletti was the one who would have proved most useful had he decided to stay. But he had very publicly stated his displeasure at losing his starting place to Zambrotta last season, so perhaps a change was for the best.

This is also quite a surprising move by Chelsea, at least from where I'm standing. Mourinho's distrust of attacking fullbacks is well known, and Belletti is nothing if not a defensively dubious attacking fullback.

He'll probably be better than the likes of Glen Johnson, leaving Michael Essien free to return to his midfield duties, but it's hard to see how Belletti fits into Mourinho's big picture. And it's not like he hasn't seen Belletti's defensive problems first hand: the unfortunate rightback scored an own goal in the Camp Nou against Chelsea in 04-05 and his marauding runs forward in the return leg left him stranded upfield, leaving Damien Duff and Eidur Gudjohnsen free to give Chelsea an early 3-0 lead. So my question is: did Mourinho sign him? Or was this more the idea of the sporting director or Peter Kenyon? It will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Premier League.

But back to Barca. Juliano Belletti joined Barcelona as part of the 04-05 revolution that revitalized the team, going on to win La Liga twice. He played more than 100 games and contributed heavily with his effective attacking runs forward to the team's success. I always liked him for that attacking verve, even though as I've already pointed out he is defensively fragile.

During his time at Barca, Belletti also participated in the campaign that saw Barca win the Champions League for only the second time. I think if you ask Barca fans for their most vivid Belletti memory, it would have to be the goal that gave us victory over Arsenal in the final, which was his only goal for the club.


That goal was a personal release for Belletti, who had been relegated to the bench in favour of Oleguer for most of the games during that season and had only come on as a substitute in the final. The look on his face captured on the wonderful photo above sheds some light on what it meant for him personally. For Barcelona, it meant the culmination of a rebuilding process which had finally lifted the club back on top of Europe, 14 long years after the last time.

So the 'hero of Paris' departs. Good luck, Juliano. And thank you.

a few words for Mr Mourinho and Sir Alex

Expect a lot more posts over the next few weeks as my workload lessens. First, the rare Premier League-related comment from yours truly.

Re: Mourinho's latest comments

"My players? I think I have a naive team," he said. "They are naive because they are pure and they are clean. We don't have divers, we don't have violent people, we don't have people with nasty tackles or people diving into the swimming pool. Chelsea are a pure and naive team."

(It almost stands on its own, doesn't it? Just stand back and marvel.)

Oh, Jose. How I have not missed your delusional, barely coherent and occasionally entertaining ramblings and no doubt superb skills of motivation during the off season.

(Also, stop banging on about the goal Luis Garcia scored in the Champions League semi-finals of 2005. The referee was right, and you sound like a conspiracy theorist everytime you bring it up.)

Dear Sir Alex:

I do not presume to tell a man as successful as you have been in the world of football what to do. But surely you - along with every other pundit around - have noticed that your team currently lacks a cutting edge up front?

Whatever the answer is, it's definitely not playing Carlos Tevez at center forward. Carlitos is many things, but a number 9 he is not. Give him a strike partner to play off and he'll perform for you.

By the way, it simply boggles my mind that within United's collossal squad there's not one fit recognised center forward you can play. That can't be right. Frankly, this is getting a little painful to watch, even for this neutral.

Sincerely,

Linda


Next, a few words on the Spanish Super Cup.

Champions League, Premiership and La Liga musings

(Still far too busy, but how can I resist commenting on the state of affairs at such an exciting time?)

Liverpool v AC Milan

It's funny, isn't it, that perhaps the less fancied of the four sides in the semi-final actually made it through. Remember when everyone was frothing at the mouth at the idea of 3 gigantic Man Utd-Chelsea clashes in the space of a month to decide masters of England and Europe? At the time, I quietly suggested to some friends that the idea might be a bit much for those who were not fans of the two clubs involved, all respect for their achievements aside. Needn't have worried.

Predictably, Rafa Benitez proved once and for all that he does indeed have Jose Mourinho's number (what a shame he's not sharing the secret with the rest of us), while less predictably the decorated veterans of Milan proved they still had enough in them for one more shot at glory.

Milan and Liverpool are second and third on the list of most European Cup final appearances respectively. They've both had their periods of utter domination over the competition and countless unforgettable moments, sometimes at each other's expense.

No doubt Milan and their supporters are eager to erase the memory of the 2005 final by triumphing this time around. It won't be easy, but if they do pull it off, then Kaka has perhaps gone some way to earning the title of 'best player in the world' now being bestowed on him - sometimes by admiring English journalists after his display against Man Utd. And of course it will be a worthy parting gift for some of the veterans.

As for Liverpool, another European crown would probably make up for the disappointments they've suffered in the Premiership and domestic cup competitions this season. And they deserve it, having made their way past not inconsiderable obstacles in Barca and Chelsea. It's not a complete team, not yet, but Rafa Benitez is the master of making the whole far greater than the parts, and that is entirely admirable.

(As a sidenote, how pleased am I that Mascherano's talents are finally being recognised and given a platform to shine again? He's surely earned his spot on the national team back.)

More later, when the game is imminent.

Manchester United - Champions 06-07

Congratulations are in order for a tremendous achievement, given the opponent they were up against. Whatever the disappointments of this season (and I do understand the Champions League complex, given that Barca's record in the CL is just as spotty), this was probably more than even Sir Alex dared hope for at the beginning of the season.

As for young Cristiano Ronaldo, is he the best player in the world? I don't think so, not yet. But he's damn good, and he's done more than anyone could have predicted this season. He'd have a much easier time of it in a league like La Liga, which is accommodating towards players of his type, but staying at United was absolutely the correct decision for his development. I started out quite leery of him because of the diving, but the way he's weathered the abuse and grown from the experience has made me reconsider.

A few weeks ago, I thought United had choked and all the good work was going to go to waste. But they proved to be made of stronger stuff, even with players dropping like flies with injuries. Where they go from here is a tricky question, and transfer window activity or lack of from them is going to be interesting to watch.

Chelsea

I've read a fair few post-mortems of their Premiership ambitions now, written by supporters and by journalists, and one theme stands out. They all talk about pride. The pride with which Chelsea fought back in the second half of their game against Arsenal, the pride displayed by Mourinho after the game.

Even with my extremely unfavourable view of Mourinho, I still have to respect that pride, and the fighting spirit associated with it which he has carefully cultivated in his team. This season events have achieved the remarkable feat of both deepening my dislike of him and nudging me into defending him. Having said all that, and therefore hopefully given you a balanced view of my opinion of Mourinho, I would like to put to you my response to all the protestations of moral victory:

If your team ethic is built on winning at any cost, both literal and figurative, then what happens when you don't win?

That is my question, stemming from my personal view of what football is, and what it isn't.

(Edit: the ever admirable Kevin McCarra of the Guardian makes the same point in his article today with greater eloquence.)

Having said that, I would like to pay my respects to a player I don't actually like, but can't help admiring. Everyone pillored him for not adjusting immediately to Premiership football, but he's been immense this season, and anything Chelsea achieve will owe a lot to his contribution. Yeah, I'm talking about the same guy who I slated in my Barca v Chelsea match report as a diving thug - Didier Drogba, of course. He's still got that unpleasant side, and that's why I've yet to warm to him, but lord can he play. Tireless and a force to strike fear into the hearts of defenders all over (but especially Phillipe Senderos, the poor man), Mourinho probably wishes his entire team were as hard-working as Drogba and the equally indispensable Michael Essien.

West Ham

I completely understand the outrage of those who are angry that they're going to benefit from an illegal transfer without any punishment where it hurts, and the associated unfairness towards the other clubs battling relegation, but my sentimental side wins out in this one: seeing the fantastic rapport between the Hammers faithful and Carlos Tevez swayed me. If he does manage to lead them to survival, that debt of faith he now owes them would be repaid. And he's doing a wonderful job of it so far.

La Liga Title Race

I'm going to have no nails by the time this is over. As things stand with five rounds to go, the consensus seems to be that Barca, Sevilla (4 points off) and Real Madrid (2 points off) are all still in it, while Valencia only have an outside shot of closing the 6 point gap between them and the top. The fixture lists of the top 4 look remarkable similar, with matchs against moderately tricky teams like Recreativo, Espanyol and Zaragoza dominating. It's practically impossible to call, to be honest.

It's going be a matter of who blinks first. Ahh, the drama.

Barca

We've been getting results, sort of, but we've also been lucky to be playing the bottom of the league these last few weeks. Form is not quite all there, which is quite worrying. We're reliant on our stars producing their moments of magic for the game-winner, and our master goalscorer finding the net when we need him to.

In the last two seasons, Samuel Eto'o has been crucial in the title run-in. When the team seemed to be out of form and running out of steam, he would pop up and score that all-important goal to ensure the points. It's an unfair burden to put on his shoulders, given his injury complications this season, but isn't it funny how a player who missed 5 months of the season through injury could still end up making the most important contributions?

Actually, if you think about it, it's really not. Some members of the squad have been immense this season, others not so much. But that's for the end of the season. Right now, no one should be thinking of anything else other than working to secure the title. I live in hope.

Champions League results round up and quarters draw

I know I've said this enough times before, but: there really isn't much that can beat the Champions League for drama, is there?

Valencia CF 0 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg, Valencia through on away goals)

Well done to Valencia. They had arguably the most difficult task of all the Spanish teams, and managed to succeed where Barca and Real failed. I'll be cheering them on now for the Cup (especially given the quarterfinal draw), although it's hard to see how they're going to make it with Baraja out for the rest of the season, Vicente injured yet again and bans sure to result from that rather comical brawl with Inter. Poor Argie Nicolas Burdisso is never going to look the same again.

Joking aside, the fact that Burdisso and Dacourt had to play in midfield because Inter were missing Vieira and Cambiasso had a big impact, which I predicted in my preview. And of course Valencia are excellent at grinding out results when they need to.

My prediction was: Valencia to squeak it, and I was right.

Chelsea FC 2 - 1 FC Porto (3-2 agg)

As predicted. Credit to Porto for at least giving it a good go, though. If this current team can hold on to their star players and continue to develop, they may as yet make something of themselves in European competition. Chelsea on the other hand are now favourites to win the Champions League. I'm not so sure, but they've got to be at least up there.

One last, overdue note: Didier Drogba. What a player. I still bitterly dislike his antics, but as the man himself pointed out once, you can't argue with his work rate. Or his goal-scoring record.

My prediction was: Chelsea to go through. Me and every other wannabe pundit in the world, and we were right.

Liverpool FC 0 - 1 FC Barcelona (2-2 agg, Liverpool through on away goals)

Light-hearted note first: the rule of the yellow away strip held (5 wins and 2 draws in Europe), which makes me ever more convinced that the awful orange away kit was a bad idea.

On a more serious note, this is not an easy game for me to write about, but I have to say, congratulations to Liverpool, they deserved to go through, and good luck to them for the rest of the competition. Fair play, too.

And good for Gudjohnsen - he desperately needed a goal. Sure, it didn't amount to anything, but in terms of pride and morale I think it was important to at least leave Anfield with a victory. After all, we all know what's coming up this weekend.

Olympique Lyonnais 0 - 2 As Roma (0-2 agg)

Wow, what an upset. I don't know about you, but this was the result that really shocked me. Great work by Roma, and terrible from Lyon, who no doubt expected much more from this campaign given their squad's potential and their progress through their domestic league.

My prediction was: Lyon to go through. Obviously, I was dead wrong.

Arsenal FC 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (1-2 agg)

What a game from Alex! Must have been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster for the poor guy. Ronald Koeman's teams have this knack of reaching above their actual skill level through organisation, hard work and (it must be said) riding their luck. It's not pretty, but it's very effective. He did it with Benfica, and he's doing it again with PSV.

As for Arsenal, it was the same old story. They created enough chances to win the game many times over, but no one could put the ball in the back of the net. Believe me, Barca fans know all about that particular frustration, but that's the way football is, I suppose.

It's rather sad, really, since they do have a very talented young squad, and yet their season is pretty much over barring fighting Liverpool for 3rd place in the Premiership, which isn't exactly an inspiring battle-cry.

(I'm pleased to note that Sun Xiang of PSV became the first Chinese footballer to start a game in the Champions League. He also helped set up Alex's goal, if I'm not mistaken.)

My prediction was: I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close. I was wrong. It was close, but not like that.

Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Lille OSC (2-0 agg)

Not as easy as it could have been for Man Utd, but in this instance I can't really blame Sir Alex for not using 4-4-2, since he's missing so many attacking players. (But I have to say this: Silvestre instead of Heinze? Seriously?) United were not at their best against a determined but limited team, and probably made their fans suffer a bit unnecessarily.

I'm glad my wish that Larsson would give United fans something to remember him by came true. The man's a byword for reliability, and he's got a great sense of occasion. Of course he was going to score.

My prediction was: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2. Except they didn't, and laboured to victory instead.

FC Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF (4-4 agg, Bayern go through on away goals)

Oh dear. You've got to feel sorry for Capello, his best laid plans shattered by an embarrassing slip-up in the first 12 seconds of the game. For God's sake, from their own kick-off! It has to be said that I think there isn't much difference between the two teams - in fact, Real can probably play better football. But they had very bad luck with injury to crucial team members (Beckham, Reyes, Cannavaro) and going to Germany is always difficult.

(Roberto Carlos has just announced he's leaving at the end of the season. I'm sorry to say this, given how great he used to be, but it's probably about time to quit while he's ahead.)

My prediction was: Bayern it is. And I was right. Real are just as fragile as Barca, so the kind of lead they had really wasn't enough.

AC Milan 1 - 0 Celtic FC (1-0 agg, Milan through after extra time)

A heroic performance from Celtic. I don't want to sound patronising, because after all they've worked so hard over the 2 legs with little reward, but I bet this did no harm to their reputation Europe-wide. Very impressive, and I look forward to seeing them back in the Champions League next season.

As for Milan, now that they're through to the quarterfinals I think they're proper contenders. But they're not a great team. (I haven't seen a truly great team in this year's Champions League yet.) Still, they're very good at the knockout stages of European competition. (Like I predicted: ability to score late goals when they really need to at home, check.)

My prediction was: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though. And that's exactly what happened. Almost depressingly predicable, that one.

the draw

1) Milan v Bayern Munich - ooh, intriguing. Very much in the traditional of grand old European showdowns. Except neither team are in top shape, really. I'd expect Milan to outclass Bayern, at least based on current showings.

2) PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool - but they just played each other in the group stages! I think Liverpool need to be wary of PSV, despite the results earlier in the season. Koeman's crafty coach, and so is Benitez. It's going to be interesting to watch the tactical battle, if nothing else. I think Liverpool will make it through this one.

3) Roma v Manchester United - unconventional match-up, but very interesting. Roma can give United trouble, especially if they're still having injury and form problems by then. A lot depends on how fit Roma's own razor-thin squad is, too. Hard to say, especially given United's need to concentrate on their title race. I'll delay judgement on this one, but I have a sneaking feeling that if United aren't careful, they could stumble here.

4) Chelsea v Valencia - this is the draw that made me happiest. Valencia are the kind of team that knows how to play against teams like Chelsea, and they have a canny coach in Quique Sanchez Flores who will be a match for Mourinho. The only problem is that Valencia's injuries are mounting up again: Baraja and Vicente for starters. I think those two are more important than whatever suspensions UEFA will hand out for the brawl against Inter, since Navarro isn't a starter and Marchena, who's the only other one up on charges, isn't essential either. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'll call it for Valencia. Barring yet another meltdown, I think they can do it.

semi-finals: W4 v W2, W3 v W1

My pick for the competition overall? The bookies in England have got the English clubs at the top of their lists, with Chelsea favourite. I can see that logic, since the 3 English clubs are fairly well-placed, but my instincts say not to rule out Milan or Valencia either.

Champions League last 16: previews and predictions

I was discussing Champions League prospects with someone, and he bought up the idea that this year could see all four semi-finalists end up being Premiership teams. Personally, I would like at least one La Liga team to advance at least to the semi-finals, although none of the 3 have it easy, unlike all 4 Premiership teams.

Valencia CF - FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg)

Valencia is in the best position of all the Spanish clubs, but they also have arguably the most formidable opposition. No offense to any Reds out there, but you've got to admit Inter's form is pretty frightening. So it's a good thing Valencia has those 2 valuable away goals. If David Albelda weren't suspended I'd be confident of Valencia holding Inter to a 0-0 draw at home to go through, but they're a lot less solid without him. To balance this out, Patrick Vieira and Esteban Cambiasso are both unavaliable for Inter through injury, which is bad news for them since even a squad as large as theirs can't compensate completely for the loss of 2 players who perform similar functions in midfield.

(Optimistic) prediction: Valencia to squeak it. Nothing against Inter, in fact I rather like them because of the Argentineans, but I'd like to have at least one Spanish club in it for the long haul. And, you know, only two Spanish clubs have ever won the Champions League.

Chelsea FC - FC Porto (1-1 agg)

Porto are a good team, but they're no match for Chelsea. This was a very good draw for the Blues, and I don't expect them to throw anything away. If Porto somehow manage to scrape through, it would be a minor miracle, because on quality terms they really haven't got enough to compete against Chelsea, even without John Terry.

Prediction: Chelsea to go through. As they say, anything can and has happened in the Champions League, but the Blues are simply too solid.

Liverpool FC - FC Barcelona (2-1 agg)

This is it. The big one. I've seen Liverpool bloggers referring to this game as season-defining for them, in light of Premiership and Cup results, and while Barca are still in with a shout for both the League and the Copa del Rey a lot depends on how this game plays out for us too. We all know about Liverpool's strength at Anfield and their ability to defend solidly and counter with great effect.

Barca, on the other hand, have to go all out. Which isn't too different from our usual approach anyway, but as Rijkaard says we really don't have much to lose at this point. The trident of Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi might finally be reunited, and persumably Deco and Thuram will be restored to the starting line-up. I have a hunch that Zambrotta will be used as left-back with Oleguer on the right, since Gio and Belletti have been left out of the squad. As for the rest, it's anyone's guess. Like the Barca press keep saying, we need a miracle. Or just the whole team, playing at their best - no, beyond their best.

Barca have been through a lot of ups and downs this season - from the sublime to the ridiculous; injuries, slumps, in-fighting, disappointment as well as those moments of great football we all live for. Frankly, I'm a little emotionally wrung out by it all. But that's football. I'm not going to predict anything for this game. We all know what the obvious conclusion is. The odds are stacked against Barca - and I have to point out, due in large part to the team's performance at the Nou Camp. But nevermind all that. I'm not even demanding a result that allows us to go through.

Remember that epic game at Stamford Bridge? No, not the triumph of last season, but the heartbreak of 2 seasons ago. It's a bitter memory, but I can't complain about the spirit in which the team conducted themselves on the pitch.

The football journalist James Lawton, recalling Barca's game against Benfica in the European Cup final of 1961, wrote this:

They were betrayed by some catastrophic goalkeeping and trailed 2-1 at half-time. In the second half Barça, inspired by Suarez, played astonishing football, hitting the bar and the post five times. But only one goal went in, and Barça, perversely, lost 3-2. However, one consolation was huge: it was the knowledge that beaten teams and football men can define themselves in defeat as well as victory...

That last line has resonated with me ever since I first read it. A club like Barca, which prides itself on a tradition of attacking football come hell or high water, should always keep that in mind. We all like to idealize our club's image, it's true, (and some would claim that we preach image because we're not as successful) but that's a clear statement of the ideal as any I've ever read.

I just want the boys to do their best. As long as I can see that they put everything into it, that's enough.

Visca el Barca!

(On a less serious note, this game will see the return of the much loved - well, by me anyway - fluorescent yellow away shirts used last season, which serve as the third kits this season. Contrary to reports, they're not being used because they're 'lucky'. Both Barca's home and away kits have been deemed to clash with Liverpool's famous red home jersey.)

Olympique Lyonnais - As Roma (0-0 agg)

According to all reports the first leg was dreadfully dull. Hopefully this time at least one of the teams will come out and play like they actually want to win it. Both teams are hungry for Champions League success, Lyon because their domination of Ligue 1 is getting a bit boring, Roma because they have no chance of winning Serie A despite their best efforts.

Prediction: Lyon have more in the tank and Roma can be rather neurotic away from home in Europe. Lyon to go through.

Arsenal FC - PSV Eindhoven (0-1 agg)

Arsenal did not do themselves justice in front of goal in the first leg. On paper, this was a plum draw for them. But that's Arsenal for you this season. They're more than capable of pulling out a result at Ashburton Grove, of course, and PSV haven't exactly been having the greatest of times themselves.

Prediction: Hard to call, since PSV are difficult to break down and the Gunners have had trouble in the past with teams like them. I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close.

Manchester United FC - Lille OSC (1-1 agg)

This tie has come to have a surprising amount of bad blood associated with it over the last few seasons. Not quite on the level of Chelsea-Barca or Real-Bayern, but close enough, especially with the mayhem in the first leg. This was the best possible draw for Man Utd, so they really should go through easily. Anything else, and they'll know they've screwed up royally. Personally, I don't care either way, but a Larsson goal would be nice. Farewell present and all, even though Ferguson is busy insisting to anyone who will listen that they won't miss him once he's gone. Of course you will, Sir Alex. We all end up wishing he'd stay longer. (Besides, isn't poor Ole injured again?)

Prediction: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2.

FC Bayern Munich - Real Madrid CF (2-3 agg)

Until Mark van Bommel scored that cracking goal, it was all looking so good for Real. Now they have to go to Germany, where they've traditionally not enjoyed themselves and suffer for 90 minutes. Make no mistake, Bayern may not be very good this season, but they're still good enough to give Real trouble. Especially since poor David Beckham's injured. (I kind of feel terrible for him - what a time to get injured! Just when things are going so well...and now he's going to miss his last Clasico as well.) Beckham's potential replacement Reyes also got injured in the same game, which means that several more Capello exiles might have to be dusted off for a run out. On the Bayern side, they're missing Bastian Schweinsteiger through suspension, which is a big loss for them.

Prediction: difficult one to call, given that both sides are weakened and showing wobbly form. I think Real will really miss Beckham, though. I'd like to see Real scrape through (the more Spanish teams, the merrier), but my gut feeling is that's not too likely. Bayern it is.

AC Milan - Celtic FC (0-0 agg)

Celtic have done very well to come this far and still be in with a shot at progressing, but I felt that their big chance to grab an advantage was at home in the first tie. Milan are very, very good at scoring late goals when they need to at home in European competition, and they're not nearly as crap as they were at the beginning of the season. Besides, Celtic are generally crap away from home in Europe.

Prediction: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though.


Ahh, the intrigue of the Champions League. For me, the World Cup is only thing that surpasses it for pathos and excitement.

Premiership: a defence of Benitez and Mourinho (!)

It's a bit odd watching the fireworks in the Premiership from the point of view of a neutral, but perhaps that gives me the benefit of some unbiased insight - which makes the whole thing seem at times utterly ridiculous.

Liverpool

Oh, man, Liverpool. I feel terrible for Luis Garcia - his season is pretty much over, which sucks on its own, but now a triumphant return to Barcelona in February isn't going to happen. It's easy to say that an enormous goal threat in European competition has been removed from the tie, but Luis was a part of the Barcelona youth program. When he was playing for Barca B, that team also contained current club captain Carles Puyol, current third captain Xavi, and Gabri Garcia (now of Ajax) amongst others. They won promotion to the Spanish second division in 1998, relying amongst other things on goals scored by Luis, made by Xavi. So there's an emotional connection there, and I'm sad he's going to miss the match.

For those criticising Benitez, remember he's not in an easy position. I have a lot of sympathy for him, despite the fact that you have to place some of the blame for a defeat like the latest on the coach. After all, Arsenal had 6 shots on goal and scored 6 goals. That's not acceptable from the defence. That said, and I know this is not a popular opinion right now, those who say that he should have concentrated on the Carling Cup as their last realistic chance of silverware are mistaken. Remember how everyone said that Manchester United had merely won a consolation for other failures in the League and the Champions League when they won it last season?

Benitez has to worry about a good finish in the Premiership, preferably automatic qualification to the Champions League for next season (which is not going to be easy, obviously) and start thinking about the tie against Barca. Being out of cup competition might actually help in that respect, since their fixture list is now a lot lighter than say, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd or Barca's.

(Speaking as a Barcelonista, I can't help but worry that these two defeats against Arsenal only makes Liverpool more dangerous in the Champions League: after all, if it's their last shot at silverware this season and they've got their backs against the wall, we all know how Benitez's team can rise to such occasions.)

He's spent a lot of money, some of it on players who haven't worked out, but doesn't that happen to everybody? The problem he has had with the Liverpool board seems to be that while he gets a reasonable sum to splash around, having a 40 million dollar transfer kitty can feel very different when you need 3 world-class players to complete your team or 8. Obviously the quality of players who do end up coming are going to suffer for that. Think about it - other than Xabi Alonso, how many other proper bidding wars have Liverpool won for a truly world-class player in the last 3 seasons when up against the other great clubs of Europe?

When not everybody in your squad is ready to give performances that don't shame the shirt they're wearing, (and taking injuries into account) some important players are going to end up playing too many games. It surprised me to read that some of the Liverpool team had played every game this season, given his famous preference for rotations, but it was inevitable. It's simply not physically possible, especially given the English season, for anyone to do that through the whole season. So Benitez is within his rights to rest key players.

Comparative statistic: no Barcelona player has played every game this season, nor in the previous one. Mind you, we did lose a cup game 4-2 (away to Zaragoza) when Rijkaard rested Puyol last season, which demonstrates the perils of rotating key players, but it's simply something that has to be done for practical and physical reasons.

It's hilarious to read about people criticising Benitez's attitude and aptitude towards the domestic cups. Have people already forgotten that he won the FA Cup last season? And then there are those who say that he had nothing to do with the miracle in Istanbul. Ever heard of the phrase 'game-changing substitutions'?

Chelsea

Regular readers (if there is any such thing) will know that I don't like Jose Mourinho very much. But I have to say, I feel bad for him right now. He's in a very difficult situation in regards to suspensions and injuries, and for me he's handled it as well as he possibly can. Every game he seems to have key players suspended (Makelele and Ashley Cole for the next game, for example) not to mention the impact losing John Terry has had.

At Barca, we know how you feel, Mou. People say that it's his fault the squad isn't deep enough, but a 20 man squad is hardly small. Barca have a 22 man squad, which I think is plenty - that's not a big difference. Mourinho's being hammered about the lack of quality back-up, but how many top class players are willing to sit on the bench waiting for a starter to get injured, regardless of the money? Is the irony not lost on those who persist on this point while going on about how criminal it is that the likes of Wright-Phillips are rotting on the Chelsea bench? So if he does dare to get some high quality substitutes, he's wasting talent?

Mourinho's aura as the perfect manager is shattered, there's no doubt about that. The number of duds in the current squad leads one to conclude that he's not the most astute shopper in the transfer market - either that, or he has no control over transfers, like a Spanish club coach. Neither are empowering images. But nevertheless, I don't think he's down and out just yet. Besides, he can hardly be blamed for the uselessness of the Chelsea youth system in producing players who are good enough to cover for the first team.

This is probably the only time you will ever see me defending Mourinho. If he ever turned up in La Liga I'd probably contemplate suicide. But really, people. Be reasonable. Piling on is unseemingly.

The Wit and Wisdom of Frank Rijkaard: Chelsea Special

Not only a great coach, a former great player, but quippy in any one of four languages. Enjoy.

04-05

"They a great team," he says, "a great team. Very functional . . ." - when asked what he thought of Chelsea under Mourinho.

"When we [him and Mourinho] finally meet, it could be quite a moment." - predicting the beginning of a long and fruitful relationship.

"When people talk like this before a match, it is a sign that they are not calm. They are not at ease with the match to come." - responding with mind games of his own in the wake of Mourinho's naming of both sides before the clash at Camp Nou.

"[Espanyol] have much more football in them and a more winning mentality [than Chelsea]. They are more positive from a footballing point of view." - Rijkaard was left unimpressed by the first game, so much so that - well, it's like Sir Alex saying that Man City are better than Chelsea.

(Not quite as scathing, though, as Puyol suggesting that Chelsea were the worst side to come to the Camp Nou in that season's Champions League, which places them below the likes of Celtic and Shahktar.)

"The Chelsea team? "One: Robben. Two: Robben. Three: Robben." - making more fun of Mourinho's naming of both teams and him lying about Damien Duff's injury situation (Robben was injured at the time.)

05-06

''I feel very sorry for Mourinho if I upset him. It is a real shame. I promise with all my heart I will try not to do so again.'' - responding to reports that Mourinho was not impressed when Rijkaard described Chelsea as workman-like.

'Thank Heaven for that. [Referee] Terje [Hauge] is an intimate friend of mine. I often speak with him on the phone and we eat together whenever we can.'' - making fun of the Anders Frisk controversy from 04-05.

06-07

"Nothing. [Interviewer laughs.] Nothing. Only that we lost, and we didn't play well." - when asked by the BBC what he'd learned from defeat at Stamford Bridge in the group stage.


By the way, I discovered something truly terrifying while googling Rijkaard quotes - Johan Cruyff used to call Rijkaard 'Frankie'. That's it, I'm going to do the same from now on. (Only joking. I'd die of laughter while trying to write serious analysis.)

(tied) quote of the year

“The worst thing about playing Chelsea is having to listen to Mourinho afterwards.” - normally unflappable Barca midfielder-defender Edmilson

"I stand for fairness and justice in football." - Jose Mourinho

more quotes

If you love quirky/stupid/witty quotes about football and sport in general as much as I do, the BBC's quotes of the year, parts one and two, as well as Football365's quotes of the year, parts one, two, three and four should make fun reading.

Happy new year, everyone.

Champions League last 16: early predictions

A lot can change between now and February, it's true, but the essential quality of a team who can win the Champions League shouldn't vary greatly from week to week anyway. So here are my early assessments, which I'll update as the ties get closer.

FC Barcelona-Liverpool FC

The pick of the bunch, for me, along with the next one down. There are obviously a lot of storylines surrounding the tie: the 05-06 holders versus the 04-05 winners; Garcia, Zenden and Reina returning to Catalonia, Rafa Benitez, Mark Gonzalez and Xabi Alonso trending familiar ground; and so on.

It's hard to predict a result, given the bumpy form of both teams (which suggest that neither are favourites to win the whole thing), although things seem to be looking up for Liverpool lately. A lot will depend on the injury situation and the fixture list, the latter of which will be a major disadvantage to Barca. It will be very difficult for the Spanish side, and I really doubt that the games will be great spectacles even if we do get through. Those who think otherwise need to check their expectations against the team's lack of consistency.

Real Madrid CF-FC Bayern Munich

A classic match-up between European giants. In a lot of ways, I think the sense of occasion surrounding this tie will be greater than the matches themselves. Real Madrid also lack a bit of consistency in their performances - sometimes they can actually produce pretty good football - but even when they play awful, negative stuff they can still get the result. Unfortunately Bayern aren't exactly the most exciting team to watch either, not to mention they are a diminished force this season with the personnel changes that have gone on. I think Real Madrid to go through, but not by a whole lot.

FC Internazionale Milano-Valencia CF

What kind of reward is Inter for topping your group? Poor Valencia. They do have an awful, awful record against Inter, including some big defeats at home. Plus, their situation in La Liga isn't very good right now, what with all the points they dropped when major players were injured. That said, they are looking much better now, and will probably have most of their players back by the time this game rolls around. It's hard to say what will happen, because both sides have a track record of letting a perfectly good thing implode on them.

Inter are expected to win Serie A this season, so they are under some pressure. Whether or not they will crack again this time is up in the air - the squad does seem to handle big occasions slightly better now. I'd still question Mancini's coaching skills, but what a squad he has at his disposal. But Valencia also have a large, high quality and - most impressively - very Spanish squad when they're not having an injury crisis. I have a feeling Valencia are getting tougher, just as Inter are. Another close one, I think. Valencia to give Inter some scares, but Inter to hold on -just - and go through.

AS Roma-Olympique Lyonnais

This should be interesting. Lyon are in great form despite having a very depleted forward line through injuries. In reality, they can replace almost anyone, even the excellent Fred, but as long as Juninho is there and firing they're okay. But if he gets injured they're going to struggle. Roma are notoriously poor travellers in Europe, but the home leg in Rome will provide a stiff test for Lyon's ambitions. The French champions have the advantage of not really having to think about their league, since they have a ridiculous lead there already, unlike Roma, who still dream of catching Inter and winning the title but have a bit of chasing to do. Lyon to go through pretty comfortably, as they always do at this stage.

Celtic FC-AC Milan

It depends on how much Milan want this. That seems like a ridiculous thing to say, but I can't really see what's preventing them from doing better, apart from desire. Even with injuries they should not be nearly this bad. Celtic are almost never to be beaten for their fierce desire and commitment in Europe, and their domestic situation is much better than Milan's.

Of course, if Milan can win the Champions League, they can stop worrying about securing 4th spot in Serie A. Let's face it, they shouldn't have been allowed into the competition this year at all, but they got a lifeline from UEFA, along with one of the easiest groups I've ever seen. Nice. If they don't win this tie it will be all their own fault.

Celtic are almost unbeatable at home, but Milan should really take the home leg, even if the injury problems persist. That said, right now Gila is the only one of their forwards actually scoring, which is not a good situation considering his record of 0 goals from the CL last season. Difficult one to call, as it depends on a lot of factors that can change very quickly, but for now I'll go for Milan to squeak through by a couple of late, late goals at home. As they always do.

FC Porto-Chelsea FC

Much as I would like Porto to pull off an upset - not for the reason you might suspect, but more because I would like on-form Argies Lucho Gonzalez and Lisandro Lopez to advance in the Champions League - I don't think it's going to happen. The English champions are too well-organised, too strong mentally and physically and too resourceful. Their current injury concerns and problems at the back should be sorted by then, too. Whatever their players are saying about concentrating on the Premiership, make no mistake, they think this is their year to win the CL. Tournament favourites (yes they are, no matter what anyone tries to spin you with) Chelsea to go through easily.

PSV Eindhoven-Arsenal FC

I actually forgot about this tie at first when I was writing this post, so that tells you just how interested I am. Still, Arsenal should beware PSV, who can play in the style that the Gunners find most frustrating and do it quite efficiently. It may not be pretty, but it might just work. Ronald Koeman is a pretty smart coach who's only getting better at this CL business.

A lot depends on which Arsenal turns up for the games, but I think PSV have an outside chance of an upset here. Not because they might outplay Arsenal, you understand. If PSV do end up going through, Arsene ain't going to be happy, because it will probably be because they've just parked the bus and hit them either on the counter or with a set-piece. Not good for football, but very possible.

Lille OSC-Manchester United FC

This game might seem even more boring than the previous one mentioned, but at least it has a nice backstory to it. Lille got two good results against United last season during a horrible group stage in which they managed to finish bottom, below what many British pundits call 'the French minnows'. Personally, I'd like to remind them that those so-called minnows are regulars in the last 16, and are always there or thereabouts in the French league, finishing either second or third behind the giants Lyon.

(Side note: If you look at their record, United really are generally very poor away from home in Europe, aren't they? And I thought Barca have been wobbly away from home this season...)

Anyway, now that Barca have avoided drawing United, my fondest hope in this tie is for Larsson to come on, score - preferably the decider - and leave a hero. Why not? It seems to happen everywhere he goes.

But that's just my personal fancy. Realisticly, United need to beware the same things as Arsenal - Lille are fairly tight at the back, not to mention mentally tougher from their trials and tribulations in Europe for the last few years. Witness their defeat of - a very poor, it must be said - Milan on the last match-day. Barring an injury crisis, United to have too much attacking power for the French team - but only if Fergie remembers to stick to 4-4-2.

Barca round-up

I've been having a crazy time lately with my holiday job, hence the lack of posts. Some thoughts below on all matters Barca recently.

La Liga

Good to keep the winning form going, especially away to the most defensively solid team in the league in Mallorca - well, not anymore. It's still looking very tight in the top 8, so Barca are going to have to hang on through our injury problems and grind out results when necessary.

Having said that, I've already discarded the 3 points against Atletico Madrid. We almost never win against them. A club is only allowed one 'black beast' club in my book, and ours is Atletico - and, by implication, Torres. (He'd be a great buy if all that your club needed to do was beat Barcelona every week.) But that's okay, because a lot of the other top 8 teams are playing each other in the next few rounds, and will probably take points off each other in the process.

Champions League

I was so relieved we won in Sofia - 'without playing', as Sport claimed - which keeps the club's qualification chances in its own hands. By the way, I've been very impressed with the way Levski have approached the Champions League - with positive football and sensible responses to defeat. Fair play to them.

Chelsea of course lost to Bremen 0-1, a result which ensures that they will qualify and places Barca in the position of having to win against Bremen in the last game to get through. I'm not blaming Mourinho - he fielded a strong side and no doubt went out to at least get some sort of result. Hell, he even complained to the press later that Frings went down too easily in winning the freekick that led to the Bremen goal, so you know he took it seriously. In fact, I wouldn't have blamed him if he'd rested some players with the Manchester United match coming up, so his behaviour has been above what I expected.

As for Bremen, they need any result they can get. A good win for them, and they now have everything to play for - and pretty much nothing to lose, unlike Barca. Fair enough.

As both Motta and Deco have insisted - neither of them fans of Chelsea, kind of like yours truly - Barca should not hope for favours from Mourinho's team. It's their business what they do, after having gotten such good results from their first 4 games, and they have every right to do whatever makes them happy.

On the other hand, it's up to Barca to make sure that qualification does happen. A team with aspirations of defending their title shouldn't have to - or want to - rely on anyone else's sportsmanship or results. It's all down to a single game, at the Camp Nou, in which we have to win. There's nothing wrong with that.

Food for thought

Here's Bremen coach Thomas Schaaf on what his team is going to do at the Camp Nou:

"We set ourselves ambitious aims and so far we have reached them all in excellent fashion, but we shouldn’t travel to Barcelona thinking that all we have to do is defend.

"If you allow them to play their game, they’re going to hammer us. We have to take the game to them instead."

I don't know if we're in the kind of form (or have the kind of players fit) to 'hammer' a side like Bremen, but if they do take the game to Barca (and judging by past record, they will), with the way Barca almost always play at home it could make for a good encounter. Like against Chelsea, Barca cannot afford to give away cheap set pieces, since Bremen have some - to quote a Mourinhoism - 'giants' who are very good at capitalising.

Medical problems

Something's not right here. Poor Belletti keeps getting injured again right after 'recovering' from a short-term injury, and they keep screwing up the recovery times for other players. Please tell me Messi's not going to be out for double the time he's actually supposed to be (again). Or, God forbid, the same happening to Eto'o.

More immediately, Ronaldinho, Marquez and Motta all picked up knocks in the game against Levski. This is very, very bad. Marquez - who has admittedly been a bit out of sorts lately - can be replaced by either Oleguer (competent, but unable to make up for Puyol's lack of speed) or Thuram (again, same thing - awesomely skilled but not the fastest player around, and not quite on the same wavelength as Puyol a lot of the time). Hopefully Edmilson will be available in place of Motta if necessary. It's a shame since Motta's finally hit a good patch of form and to return to his eternal injury hell would set him back once again.

Ronaldinho, though. If Barca lose him, we're in deep trouble. That would be our 4th forward injured, not to mention our entire first choice forward line - enough to send any club into a deep spiral of despair. In this case, the prospect of Ezquerro-Gudjohnsen-Giuly taking on Bremen on the 5th does not fill me with confidence, even if the match is at home.

First impressions are that all three are just knocks, although knowing the Barca medical staff I'm waiting for them to be examined properly first - which will probably happen today.

Player status

To finish on a cheerful note, how good is Iniesta right now? And it's looking like a productive season in terms of goals for him too. Much as I like Xavi - and I like Xavi a lot - it's hard to see Iniesta not starting in this form. Not only that, but he has shown repeatedly that while quiet, he is a leadership figure on the pitch already at the tender age of 22. I was especially impressed when he was the one going around rallying the troops, calming people down and communicating with the referee when necessary against Depor, in a match where Barca desperately needed a leader after what happened against Chelsea and Puyol's tragic absence. He stepped up, even more so than our actual captain on the day - first vice-captain Ronaldinho.

While him and Xavi are both the quiet type, Iniesta seems to me to be even more of a leader figure. Xavi, bless him, is almost too easy-going. I've said this before, but Barca need to hold on to Iniesta. It's hard to see him not being pelted with offers for teams where he'll start every match, but it should be possible for the club to retain him as very possibly a future captain if they play their cards right. There the precedent of Xavi - who has turned down Chelsea, amongst others, to stay at Barca even through the bad old years - may come in useful.

Back to the selection headache, there's also the option of playing both Xavi and Iniesta, which has been used successfully before. The problem with that is that Deco is working his ass off right now, and getting a lot of constructive, if unglamorous work done. I don't think playing all 3 of them is a good idea unless we're at home and the opposition are playing with 10 men behind the ball - and that applies whether Xavi or Iniesta plays in the holding role. Then again, since Messi's out, all 3 might play with more regularity - with Iniesta in Giuly's usual position, instead of further back in midfield.

It's nice to see Gudjohnsen, Ezquerro and now Giuly getting on the scoresheet, when the team needed them to produce. Especially Guddy - I really like the attitude he has shown so far this season, despite all my criticisms of his technique. It's great that he's finally starting to answer back to all the naysayers. I'd gladly eat my words if he'd score more. As for poor Santi Ezquerro, the forgotten man now has a chance to get some games for Barca and prove his worth.

I've long admired Giuly's ability to suffer in silence given how frustrating it must be to be stuck behind a kid 10 years younger for a starting spot, especially given what he is capable of, and his glittering record so far. Much as I hate the fact that Messi is injured yet again, I like Giuly and would love for him to go on a run of form that will see him challenge Messi even when the Argentine is fit. More goals would also be nice.

Finally, as I mentioned before, congratulations are due to Motta, who is 'benefitting' from Edmilson's various injury problems and after a couple of games seems to be hitting some form. This is great news as he is Barca's best at linking attack and defence when his elusive good form comes about. Long may it continue.

Champions League: early predictions

I don't think we've seen a team that look like they could sweep all before them yet. Sure, that sometimes means nothing in this competition (see Liverpool 04-05, Porto 03-04) but what I mean in this case is a team who are showing consistent form in the group stages so far. Compare Barca's group stage results last year with what they're like this time around: in 05-06 they won all their group stage games, only drawing one away in Greece. They scored 16 goals and let in only 3. This time they're struggling to qualify. But more on that later.

Take a look at the usual suspects. While Arsenal should be contenders because of the quality of their squad and how well they can play, they still have trouble finding their way through a well-organised defence, as their domestic form and both results against CSKA have shown. It will be interesting to see what Porto can make of them second time round. Manchester United? They just got beaten by Copenhagen. Yeah, it wasn't a full-strength side, but that illustrates their problem. I think it's probably better for Sir Alex to focus on winning the domestic battle rather than obsessing about another European victory - his squad's far too thin for both, especially considering the ridiculous amount of games in the English calender (2 domestic cups? what?) Injuries to a couple of players would damage the ability of his squad severely.

Liverpool can never be discounted. Rafa Benitez is very, very good at winning cup competitions, as his record shows. Contrast their domestic form with their CL form. At their best, they don't let anything through in defence and break decisively in attack. It might not be the type of football I like to watch, but it works very well. That said, you do get the sense that they could struggle a bit because of the amount of ground they need to make up domestically to even get near Chelsea and Manchester United at this point. Still, they look the most likely of the English clubs to challenge, with one exception I'll discuss at the end.

Moving on to Italy, I think a lot of people were discounting the Italian teams at the beginning for various reasons related to the match-fixing scandal. But they are notoriously good at cup competitions. Roma don't look like winners, frankly. Their squad is too small and lacking in quality to sustain compaigns on both fronts, especially since their fans want to have a go at winning Serie A this season.

Inter on the other hand do have a big enough squad, but they're also notoriously liable to fall apart in the later stages of big competitions. I watched them play very well in their win over Milan, but got the sense that a well-organised defence (which Milan's wasn't, I can assure you) could stop them. Crespo's a great forward, and Cruz is producing the goods as usual, but Ibrahimovic isn't the most consistent striker in the world and Adriano is next to useless at this point. They're fairly solid at the back, which is very useful in cup competitions, but somehow still fail to convince me that they have the will to go all the way. Opposing arguments are welcome - I'd love to see good old Zanetti lift Big Cup if my team can't.

Just like Liverpool, Milan can never been discounted, even when they seem to be a bit down domestically. They lack a forward who guarantees goals because they let their best go to Chelsea and didn't replace him. That's going to be a big problem when the going gets tough. Kaka can't hit hattricks in every game. And then there's the defence. I get that most of these guys are legends, and Maldini still looked great when he came on in the Milan derby, but I don't understand how the club could have allowed their backline to become such a collection of monuments without bringing in young talent.

Can't Evil Overlord Berlusconi splash out some money to pluck promising young defenders out of the smaller European leagues to learn under the greats? Costacurta is over 40, you know, and 32' Television Set Cafu (nickname courtesy of the Guardian) isn't getting any younger. Even Nesta hasn't been on form this season after suffering injuries before the World Cup. Anyway, they've got some problems both up front and in the back. I don't see them going all the way, unless of course the draw favours them ridiculously, as happened in the group stages.

I wrote a while ago about how Valencia are the only ones who look like potential winners of the Spanish big three. It looks even worse for those of us who love La Liga now. Real are looking better under Capello, who after all is very experienced with winning cup competitions, but I think they still have some issues to sort out at the back. The real test will be what Lyon can do at the Bernabeu. Real are capable of winning games even if they don't play particularly well, which is a plus in the CL, but right now they are very much reliant on the form of a few players up front (Van Nistelrooy most importantly, and Robinho). Injuries could be a problem as the season drags on because of that. They also need to fight on at least 2 fronts.

Capello's choices so far seems like an indication that he's not taking the Copa del Rey seriously, but that still leaves the league, where Barca aren't going to take anything lying down and a whole host of clubs are nipping at their heels. In conclusion, they haven't really put in a performance to convince me yet (keeping in mind I am the type of person who criticized the Barca midfield after we won 5-0), although there are some good signs.

Valencia are a tricky bunch. I thought they'd be proper contenders at the beginning of the season, both in Europe and at home. Their squad is huge, brimming with talent, and they are a very well organised team. They have 2 brilliant strikers in Villa and Morientes who can't stop scoring, great wingers, a balanced midfield, and a solid backline led by the formidable Roberto Ayala. But their luck with injuries has been absolutely rotten. Half the first choice XI is injured. They've lost their wingers, pretty much all the midfielders and a whole lot of defenders as well. If this injury problem isn't sorted out soon, they can forget about challenging for the league.

Happily they've already qualified for the knockout stages of the CL, so they can focus on getting a complete squad back together in time for those fixtures. If they can manage that then perhaps they will go far. I'm not convinced by the consistency level of Quique Sanchez Flores' team, though. They always seem to crumble at key moments - see their attempts to keep up with Barca in the last 2 seasons, one of which resulted in them being overtaken by Real Madrid near the end and the other just as unsuccessful. By losing to Celta and Racing successively they seem to be showing similar symptoms this time round. That's something they'll have to fix. The CL is unforgiving to teams who fall apart under pressure.

Now we come to the defending champions. Like I pointed out at the beginning, not the best start this time compared to their barnstorming group stage run last season. Admittedly we have a harder group this time, but that shouldn't be an excuse for a team with title winning aspirations. Before even talking about Barca's chances of winning, they have to get out of the group stage, which in itself is going to be very difficult. They need to beat Levski away and then Bremen at home. Bremen in particular are on fire at the moment. Like Deco said, Barca will need to battle to the death at Camp Nou to win on the last matchday.

Assuming we do scramble out of our group somehow even with no strikers (one crocked, one half-crocked, the rest aren't actual strikers), a lot will depend on when Samuel Eto'o gets back, and what kind of form he's in. I believe based on the Chelsea game that Barca as a whole are finally finding some form, but the striker position is still our crucial weakness.

Moving away from the big 3 leagues and on to other contenders. Lyon are arguably the most in-form team in the CL right now. Their problem seems to be falling apart at the later stages. It will remain to be seen whether or not they can change that this time round. One massive advantage is their formidable lead domestically - they really don't have to work too hard to win the title, which will leave more resources for challenging in Europe. I'll reserve judgement on them until they play Real again.

Bayern Munich started this season by declaring that they'd be happy to be in the knockout stages. They've got great results in the group stage, but I'm not convinced they have what it takes to go too much further. Poldoski hasn't settled in; Mark van Bommel, while a good player, is no Ballack; they look shaky at the back and have a tricky domestic campaign this year with Bremen looking stronger. All in all, I don't see what's going to take them far.

Speaking of Werder Bremen, they would have a fair shot of getting past the round of 16 if they managed to qualify. Now, given my allegiances and the situation in the group I have to hope that Barca get through instead, but if it does happen (to much wailing and gashing of teeth on my part) at least Bremen are a positive, attacking team. To qualify they have to get a result at home against Chelsea and then away to Barcelona. Given their recent domestic form that looks very possible, although last season they arrived in the Camp Nou on the back of similar barnstorming domestic feats and were well beaten.

That said, they have improved from last season. Klose is as deadly as ever, especially with young strike partner Aaron Hunt helping out up front. Frings is as good as ever, and even their much-mocked defence is improving with the impressive Naldo and new signing Mertesacker impressing in particular. When on form, they can trouble the defence of any team. I'm stuck hoping that they don't qualify, which is not a nice position to be in because they play lovely football. Still, how insane is group A? The league leaders of England, Spain and Germany battling it out for 2 places.

PSV have looked pretty good at times this season, and they're always contenders, but I'm not sure how genuine their challenge will prove to be in the later stages. Same goes with Porto, if they manage to get through the group stages. I think one of the dark horses this time around could come from their group, namely CSKA Moscow. Their defence is notoriously wall-like and they've got quite a few skillful Brazilians up front, not to mention an exciting homegrown winger. A Villarreal-like run? Maybe. They've got the necessary qualities.

All of which brings me to the team who look most like winners right now. That's Chelsea. They have a big squad, no matter what Mourinho insists, full of quality players. They have a healthy mix of experience and young talent. They have a manager who knows how to win in this competition. Their only weakness as far as I can see is vulnerability along the wings, but hardly any teams use the wings properly these days. Lyon might give them a hard time, but otherwise they have the potential to beat anyone else, and they know it. Of course, whether or not that attitude will prove to be a stumbling block depends on how well Mourinho can regulate his team's mental state, and he can do that very well indeed. Unless they meet nemesis Liverpool again, or an on-form Barca with Samuel Eto'o back, I don't think too many teams stand a chance against them.