The trend is much-discussed in political coverage, but it's equally prevalent in football. I'm speaking of our need to make sense of the big stories of the day by playing them into some kind of morality play context, as if somehow the fine margins of an offside decisions or whether the ball hits the post or goes inside the net has to come together to mean something bigger.
Speaking as a Cule, I couldn't blame fans of teams who've played big games against Barca in the past, say, 5 years if they got frustrated with being painted as the antagonist in Football As Art: the Musical. It's nonsense. I find it infuriating when Brazil get treated that way in the press, and I find it just as difficult to swallow when it's a team I support being given the idealized treatment.
Did it really mean something deep and profound when Barca advanced over Chelsea in last season's Champions League semi-final when they did it via a last-ditch goal and amidst so many contentious refereeing decisions? It certainly advanced the smaller narrative of Barca and Chelsea's grievances against each other, piling up from each of their explosive meetings in Europe, but beyond that, you'd have to ignore a lot of key facts to paint it as some kind of moral victory. It was a victory, sure, and one that easily made my week (okay, month), but let's not give it a gloss it doesn't deserve.
I'll give you the final - the victory over Manchester United probably could be taken as a vindication of Barca's commitment to its style, especially given the absence of key players, and of course it capped off Barca's treble. If you want to derive some meaning from that, feel free. It makes sense.
Like Guardiola pointed out in his (scrupulously gracious, no matter what quotes you've seen taken out of context) pre-match press conference for Barca-Inter, no matter what happened in that game, the Barca of the Six Cups had written their name into the club's history already. One game couldn't change that, for better or for worse. If we're talking narratives, I'll commit to that one.
But please, Arsenal aren't just a collection of too-young ingénues (more on age in a later post). Inter are not the Devil. Nor were Chelsea last season. Real, on the other hand...
I'm just kidding. But we'll have to wait until the end of the season too see how that narrative of sustained development versus sudden lavish investment plays out.
ETA: Almost forgot. You can follow me on Twitter @blackwhitengrey if you're that way inclined. Be warned: I tweet a lot of amusing Guardiola quotes.
Showing posts with label arsenal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arsenal. Show all posts
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
still blogging about TH14: links round-up
Thierry Henry was unveiled as a Barcelona player today amidst much fanfare. Exactly how much fanfare? Well, the man himself was shocked by the number of journalists there, eager to grill him. (By what I'm going to assume was a highly unfortunate coincidence, the press conference was held in the Paris suite, named after the place of Barca's Champions League victory over Arsenal, not to mention Henry's own infamous rant about the Barca players that evening.)
He was greeted by a very enthusiastic 30,000-strong crowd in the Camp Nou itself, who chanted his name as he went through the usual presentation routine. (Marca says 20,000, but all the other sources I've seen say 30,000, so I'm keeping that.)
So all in all, not too bad. Here's some of what he had to say.
On his aims:
"I want to win the Champions League with the club, and with my new teammates."On friends within the team and especially Samuel Eto'o:
""The club have shown a lot of faith in me, and now I want to show them what I can do. That is what I will be trying to do. Hopefully, I will prove to be useful for the club."
"Barça is a club that, at the start of every sesaon, wants to try and win everything. It will be a team effort and I am here to listen and learn. There are people that have been at this club for a long time and I hope that they will show me the way."
"Nobody persuaded me to come here. However, I am friendly with quite a few of the players that are here. I know Samuel Eto'o, Ronaldinho, Lilian Thuram and Ludovic Giuly well and talk to them regularly about all kinds of things.Having begun by speaking of Barca as 'more than a club', as the motto goes, he concluded with a sentence in Catalan ("estic molt content de jugar pel Barça") courtesy of Cesc Fabregas. Very cleverly, he managed to speak the language of the club in both a literal and metaphorical sense, which is always something that will endear a player to the fans.
"Eto'o and I are close. When I was injured he came to see me in London and that gave me a lift and when he was out earlier this year I came over to visit him. I have known him since he was at Mallorca. As much as the media would like us not to be friends, I am sorry to say that we are."
Update: the inimitable Sid Lowe on the presentation.
In related news, Leo Messi, for one, is pleased at the arrival of Henry, despite the increased competition:
'Titi' (Henry) has shown during all these years that he is a great player. Cesc (Fabregas) has always said that 'Titi' is fantastic in training and that he is even better away from the pitch, as a friend and a leader.'And so are Ronaldinho, Xavi, and anyone else who the media could reach for comment while they're on holiday. (Reason that Messi quotes on the subject are so easy to come by: he's not on holiday.) I did see a very sweet quote from Puyol who lamented the fact that he was recovering from an operation and couldn't be there to welcome Henry himself, but I'll be damned if I could remember where it was from with the amount of Henry coverage I've had to read in the last few days.
While the likes of Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi are probably not too worried about their place in the team, one of the players set to be most heavily affected by the transfer is probably Eidur Gudjohnsen. He insists that he's going to stay and fight for his place, and I have no reason to doubt that so far. Good for him if that statement holds, but it's hard to see him getting much playing time.
Barcelona have denied that they're after Arsene Wenger to replace Frank Rijkaard. I have a great deal of respect for Wenger, but surely this is not the time for him to be going anywhere. I'd argue it's also not the time for Barca to be changing coaches either. So that works out fine.
Lastly, contrary to what you've been hearing in the press everywhere, Samuel Eto'o is not available for sale. Really. And until the club and the player change their tune publicly, I'm just going to laugh at all those tabloid reports insisting that 25 million euros will do and Arsenal are competing with Milan or whatever other rubbish they've dreamed up.
Phew. Now that's Barca news dealt with, at least before Yaya Toure is presented tomorrow. Next up: Argentina's starting line-up against the United States.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Who wants a decent striker?
It seems like a lot of Europe's big names do this season. Some of them have already done their business: Barca with Henry, Inter with Suazo (if that deal sticks), Bayern with Toni, Chelsea with Pizarro, Juventus with Iaquinta. Then there are the big clubs still looking for someone to lead their frontline.
AC Milan
Yeah, they've got a player who used to be the world's greatest striker in Ronaldo, but Inzaghi isn't getting any younger, Gilardino isn't a sure thing, especially in the Champions League and Oliveira's just been useless since his move from Spain. Hence their stalkerish pursuit of Samuel Eto'o, despite the player repeatedly rebuffing their advances. Might I note once again that this behaviour is still on-going from Milan, despite repeated statements from both the club and the player that he is not for sale.
Update: those pesky Milan suits never give up, do they? Here's an article quoting vice president Galliani, who restates his interest despite Barca and Eto'o's frequent 'back off' signals. Geez, they're really like a persistent suitor who can't take no for an answer. Worth reading for the hilarious quote from Laporta about the possible personal consequences for him if he sells Ronaldinho.
Fortunately, coach Ancelotti is more realistic and further contends that they'll be fine even if they don't sign anyone.
Those Sheva rumours never go away, but since Chelsea are apparently suing people for saying that he's going to go back to Milan now, I'm guessing that's not likely to happen. The latest seems to be a rumoured bid for David Villa, which is highly unlikely to come off given who they're dealing with. Valencia are a big club, and for the most part they are not a selling club. Especially not their best player.
Arsenal
Having lost Henry, the search for a striker would seem to be a priority for Arsenal. The most persistant rumours involve Nicolas Anelka, now of Bolton. Given his past history with Arsenal, opinion seems to be divided on the appropriateness of his return. He's certainly a talented player, but I don't know what Bolton think of selling and therefore won't comment on the likeliness of this transfer. (Tabloids of England, Spain, and Italy need to 1) learn to fact check, and 2) learn to say 'we don't know'.)
While we're on the subject of Arsenal, there's a lot of debate about the club's future going on right now. I wouldn't presume to comment, but I did like this Guardian piece about Cesc Fabregas and his potential leadership role within the team. Fabregas is probably the former Barca youth player I would most like to come back and play for us again someday, but I wish him a long and successful spell at Arsenal before that.
Update: here's another Guardian piece, this time on the possible replacements for Henry.
By the way, AS (otherwise known as Real Madrid's mouthpiece in the same way that Sport is Barca's) is apparently perpetuating the ridiculous rumour that Arsenal were offered Eto'o in a swap deal with Henry and refused in favour of getting the cash. Really? 1) Barca are not keen to offload Eto'o since he's the president's pal, and 2) you're telling me Arsenal wouldn't like getting a younger, and also a proven big name striker if they had to lose Henry? 3) There's no way anybody would be prying Eto'o off Barca's hands with just the 17 million pounds we eventually paid for Henry.
Lastly, here's Henry's last interview given to Arsenal's official website. It's clear he's trying to make the farewell as amiable as possible, and who can blame him for that given his many years of glory at the club? He's probably given his best years to Arsenal, after all.
Liverpool
It has been said many, many times by various commentators, but Liverpool really need a top-class striker. They've got a great, world-class midfield, a solid defence that I envy, but watching the Champions League final their lack of a lethal finisher was painfully apparent. And no, much as I like Peter Crouch, he is not that man. Same applies to the hard-working Dirk Kuyt.
Given Rafa Benitez's Spanish connections, everyone assumes he's going to sign Fernando Torres of Atletico Madrid or David Villa. I already covered the unlikely nature of the Villa deal above.
Like the other clubs covered here, Liverpool has its own draws because of the nature of the club as an institution of European football. They're also apparently very popular in Spain, so that's convenient if you're trying to sign Spanish players. I bring this up because I've see the photo in which Fernando Torres' captain's armband slips and the words 'You'll Never Walk Alone' are revealed to be printed on the reverse side. The Torres to England rumours do seem to run every summer, but this time I think it might be for real. His buy-out clause is not prohibitive and though he loves the club, their failure to clinch an UEFA Cup spot this season has got to be galling. If he wants to go, the club have said they will not stop him. He's not had a great season, though. Maybe Benitez would bring the best out of him.
Update: Atletico claim that they've received no bids for Torres so far.
Liverpool have also been linked to Diego Forlan of Villarreal. The thing about Forlan is that his club have a very clear transfer policy regarding him: meet his buy-out clause. Luckily for any would-be suitors, it's not prohibitive. I'm just not sure Liverpool are actually interested.
Manchester United
They've already done several pieces of big, flashy business in this transfer window, but apparently they're not quite done. Given the injury-prone nature of Louis Saha, the effects of cruel age on Ole Gunnar Solskjær and the possibility of Alan Smith leaving the club, United could do with someone to lead the line.
There have been tons of rumours linking them with many different strikers, but as none of them seem substantial so far I won't mention any. One note on the Fabio Quagliarella saga - Udinese don't seem very keen to sell now that they own the player entirely, so that would seem to be that.
Real Madrid
I thought Real would have been set next season, at least striker-wise, but apparently Ruud van Nistelrooy's injury sustained on the last day of the season has got those in charge of the Bernabeu thinking otherwise. Actually, we're not sure who is going to be managing Real next season just yet, so that could be a barrier towards any significant moves until the Capello-Schuster mess is sorted out. Then again, transfer policy at Real - as it is at other Spanish clubs - isn't entirely dictated by the coach.
Van Nistelrooy's injury isn't very serious, but it is the type of muscle problem which is prone to recur, and while he's still a fine player he isn't getting any younger. The same could be said for Raul, although his value is of course greater than his tangible contributions on the pitch. Higuain and Robinho are talents rather than established names, and Cassano has just fallen apart completely. They won the title with this group, so they may not necessarily need anyone new, but they've got to be planning for possible injury problems next season.
They've been persistently linked to Barca's departing striker Javier Saviola in the Madrid press. If those reports are true I would personally be very unhappy, but then Barca did make the decision to let him go. Where he goes now is his own business.
By the way, I was quite impressed with this Capello interview. Ignore all that talk about Kaka, since everyone knows that already. The way he spoke about why people might not have warmed to his style (which says to me that he 'gets' Spanish football) and his pride in Real's title triumph and the fans' reactions was quite refreshing. You might not agree with him, but at least he says what he thinks and doesn't whine a lot about refereeing.
AC Milan
Yeah, they've got a player who used to be the world's greatest striker in Ronaldo, but Inzaghi isn't getting any younger, Gilardino isn't a sure thing, especially in the Champions League and Oliveira's just been useless since his move from Spain. Hence their stalkerish pursuit of Samuel Eto'o, despite the player repeatedly rebuffing their advances. Might I note once again that this behaviour is still on-going from Milan, despite repeated statements from both the club and the player that he is not for sale.
Update: those pesky Milan suits never give up, do they? Here's an article quoting vice president Galliani, who restates his interest despite Barca and Eto'o's frequent 'back off' signals. Geez, they're really like a persistent suitor who can't take no for an answer. Worth reading for the hilarious quote from Laporta about the possible personal consequences for him if he sells Ronaldinho.
Fortunately, coach Ancelotti is more realistic and further contends that they'll be fine even if they don't sign anyone.
Those Sheva rumours never go away, but since Chelsea are apparently suing people for saying that he's going to go back to Milan now, I'm guessing that's not likely to happen. The latest seems to be a rumoured bid for David Villa, which is highly unlikely to come off given who they're dealing with. Valencia are a big club, and for the most part they are not a selling club. Especially not their best player.
Arsenal
Having lost Henry, the search for a striker would seem to be a priority for Arsenal. The most persistant rumours involve Nicolas Anelka, now of Bolton. Given his past history with Arsenal, opinion seems to be divided on the appropriateness of his return. He's certainly a talented player, but I don't know what Bolton think of selling and therefore won't comment on the likeliness of this transfer. (Tabloids of England, Spain, and Italy need to 1) learn to fact check, and 2) learn to say 'we don't know'.)
While we're on the subject of Arsenal, there's a lot of debate about the club's future going on right now. I wouldn't presume to comment, but I did like this Guardian piece about Cesc Fabregas and his potential leadership role within the team. Fabregas is probably the former Barca youth player I would most like to come back and play for us again someday, but I wish him a long and successful spell at Arsenal before that.
Update: here's another Guardian piece, this time on the possible replacements for Henry.
By the way, AS (otherwise known as Real Madrid's mouthpiece in the same way that Sport is Barca's) is apparently perpetuating the ridiculous rumour that Arsenal were offered Eto'o in a swap deal with Henry and refused in favour of getting the cash. Really? 1) Barca are not keen to offload Eto'o since he's the president's pal, and 2) you're telling me Arsenal wouldn't like getting a younger, and also a proven big name striker if they had to lose Henry? 3) There's no way anybody would be prying Eto'o off Barca's hands with just the 17 million pounds we eventually paid for Henry.
Lastly, here's Henry's last interview given to Arsenal's official website. It's clear he's trying to make the farewell as amiable as possible, and who can blame him for that given his many years of glory at the club? He's probably given his best years to Arsenal, after all.
Liverpool
It has been said many, many times by various commentators, but Liverpool really need a top-class striker. They've got a great, world-class midfield, a solid defence that I envy, but watching the Champions League final their lack of a lethal finisher was painfully apparent. And no, much as I like Peter Crouch, he is not that man. Same applies to the hard-working Dirk Kuyt.
Given Rafa Benitez's Spanish connections, everyone assumes he's going to sign Fernando Torres of Atletico Madrid or David Villa. I already covered the unlikely nature of the Villa deal above.
Like the other clubs covered here, Liverpool has its own draws because of the nature of the club as an institution of European football. They're also apparently very popular in Spain, so that's convenient if you're trying to sign Spanish players. I bring this up because I've see the photo in which Fernando Torres' captain's armband slips and the words 'You'll Never Walk Alone' are revealed to be printed on the reverse side. The Torres to England rumours do seem to run every summer, but this time I think it might be for real. His buy-out clause is not prohibitive and though he loves the club, their failure to clinch an UEFA Cup spot this season has got to be galling. If he wants to go, the club have said they will not stop him. He's not had a great season, though. Maybe Benitez would bring the best out of him.
Update: Atletico claim that they've received no bids for Torres so far.
Liverpool have also been linked to Diego Forlan of Villarreal. The thing about Forlan is that his club have a very clear transfer policy regarding him: meet his buy-out clause. Luckily for any would-be suitors, it's not prohibitive. I'm just not sure Liverpool are actually interested.
Manchester United
They've already done several pieces of big, flashy business in this transfer window, but apparently they're not quite done. Given the injury-prone nature of Louis Saha, the effects of cruel age on Ole Gunnar Solskjær and the possibility of Alan Smith leaving the club, United could do with someone to lead the line.
There have been tons of rumours linking them with many different strikers, but as none of them seem substantial so far I won't mention any. One note on the Fabio Quagliarella saga - Udinese don't seem very keen to sell now that they own the player entirely, so that would seem to be that.
Real Madrid
I thought Real would have been set next season, at least striker-wise, but apparently Ruud van Nistelrooy's injury sustained on the last day of the season has got those in charge of the Bernabeu thinking otherwise. Actually, we're not sure who is going to be managing Real next season just yet, so that could be a barrier towards any significant moves until the Capello-Schuster mess is sorted out. Then again, transfer policy at Real - as it is at other Spanish clubs - isn't entirely dictated by the coach.
Van Nistelrooy's injury isn't very serious, but it is the type of muscle problem which is prone to recur, and while he's still a fine player he isn't getting any younger. The same could be said for Raul, although his value is of course greater than his tangible contributions on the pitch. Higuain and Robinho are talents rather than established names, and Cassano has just fallen apart completely. They won the title with this group, so they may not necessarily need anyone new, but they've got to be planning for possible injury problems next season.
They've been persistently linked to Barca's departing striker Javier Saviola in the Madrid press. If those reports are true I would personally be very unhappy, but then Barca did make the decision to let him go. Where he goes now is his own business.
By the way, I was quite impressed with this Capello interview. Ignore all that talk about Kaka, since everyone knows that already. The way he spoke about why people might not have warmed to his style (which says to me that he 'gets' Spanish football) and his pride in Real's title triumph and the fans' reactions was quite refreshing. You might not agree with him, but at least he says what he thinks and doesn't whine a lot about refereeing.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Welcome to Barca, TH14 (and other player-related news)
Looks like it's official.
Details later when he's presented - surely the signing who's going to take Cruyff's no.14 shirt? Henry has confirmed the transfer himself in a new L'Equipe interview. Hat tip to Gunnerblog for the translation:
There's a fairly nice - to me, but then I'm not an Arsenal fan - 'open letter' from him explaining his exit which is available on the Sun's website. (Not linking to that scumbag 'newspaper' but the BBC article I link to does summarize it.) For an Arsenal fan's perspective - which quotes from the above mentioned letter - East Lower has an interesting and very eloquent - far more eloquent than I would be if my club's talisman left - take on the matter.
By the way, Barca vice-president Ferran Soriano - who seems to conduct all our transfer business - wants you to know that there was no tapping up involved:
You have to admit, Henry and Barca are a good match, if only because he's got 1) that die-hard romanticism about playing football with a certain style and swagger that we have (which makes others label us pretentious bastards), and 2) an appropriately large chip on his shoulder to match the club's collective identity.
I mean that both ironically and sincerely. Some of the qualities that makes Barca sometimes seem smug and annoying to others are the same ones that endeared me to the club in the first place, and I'm not going to apologize for that. But I can poke fun.
With Henry, I suspect it will be the same. He's got a way to go to erase the 'only women dive' remark - not to mention the rest of his post-Paris CL final rant - from my mind, but he's made a good start. (Until then, I reserve the right to laugh at that French NT story about his 'melon énorme'.)
All joking aside, I'm not really sure how to feel about this. The impact of this transfer on the makeup of the squad, not to mention the way we play is going to be huge. Firstly, Gudjohnsen and Ezquerro are almost definitely following Saviola out the door. Most likely Giuly would be too, although his exit would only be tangentially related to Henry.
Second, how are Barca going to play next season? I can't see a way of playing Henry, Eto'o, Ronaldinho and Messi at the same time without sacrificing our midfield advantage and completely destablising the team in a way that will make the already leaky defence even worse.
Apparently the way club management have worked out is that Barca have about 55 games a season and things will be okay if each of the four end up playing about 35 of those. I don't really see how that would work. Who is Rijkaard going to leave out in a big Champions League game? Or I suppose Messi loses out because he's the most junior star amongst the four, but that would be incredibly stupid from any point of view if Barca want to hold on to him at all.
The third option is to offload one of Ronaldinho and Eto'o. (We all agree that Messi is going nowhere, right?) I've said from the beginning that if we gain Henry and lose Eto'o, I think we'd come out worse off, but this is a real possibility now. Sure, Eto'o's relationship with Laporta can pretty much ensure his continuity at the club, but as he himself acknowledges, he has enemies both within and outside the club, and they could make his lift difficult to a point where he is forced out.
Personally, I wouldn't want this to happen, as I believe Sammy to be a crucial player for Barca's successes in the last few seasons who is still very young and has loads more to offer the club. Plus, unlike the whiners (Edmilson - who's just had a knee operation, ruling him out for six months and won't be playing for Barca again - and Deco), he's ready to accept the newly imposed squad rules:
While we're on the subject of resting, and players who need it, how about our beloved Captain Caveman? In a clear demonstration of the absurdity of flying all over the world playing far too many meaningless friendlies, Carles Puyol suffered ligament damage in Barca's friendly match in South Africa and will be out for 3 months, missing the entire pre-season and about a month of league action, not to mention a couple of Champions League clashes. He was operated on as soon as possible, and here's what the doctor had to say:
Details later when he's presented - surely the signing who's going to take Cruyff's no.14 shirt? Henry has confirmed the transfer himself in a new L'Equipe interview. Hat tip to Gunnerblog for the translation:
I still have to pass a medical on Monday. But yes, I have chosen Barcelona. I am going to sign there for the next four seasons...for the football they play, their history, their stadium. For Frank Rijkaard, who I grew up watching.Oh, Thierry. Sweet talk us some more.
There's a fairly nice - to me, but then I'm not an Arsenal fan - 'open letter' from him explaining his exit which is available on the Sun's website. (Not linking to that scumbag 'newspaper' but the BBC article I link to does summarize it.) For an Arsenal fan's perspective - which quotes from the above mentioned letter - East Lower has an interesting and very eloquent - far more eloquent than I would be if my club's talisman left - take on the matter.
By the way, Barca vice-president Ferran Soriano - who seems to conduct all our transfer business - wants you to know that there was no tapping up involved:
He...insisted that Barcelona waited for the green light from Arsenal before making a move for the France international..."We don't want to point a gun at anybody," said Soriano. "We have good relationships with the European clubs."Henry himself is actually still recovering from a groin injury, but he is apparently conscious of getting fit and prepared in time for the start of Barca's pre-season. Which is nice.
You have to admit, Henry and Barca are a good match, if only because he's got 1) that die-hard romanticism about playing football with a certain style and swagger that we have (which makes others label us pretentious bastards), and 2) an appropriately large chip on his shoulder to match the club's collective identity.
I mean that both ironically and sincerely. Some of the qualities that makes Barca sometimes seem smug and annoying to others are the same ones that endeared me to the club in the first place, and I'm not going to apologize for that. But I can poke fun.
With Henry, I suspect it will be the same. He's got a way to go to erase the 'only women dive' remark - not to mention the rest of his post-Paris CL final rant - from my mind, but he's made a good start. (Until then, I reserve the right to laugh at that French NT story about his 'melon énorme'.)
All joking aside, I'm not really sure how to feel about this. The impact of this transfer on the makeup of the squad, not to mention the way we play is going to be huge. Firstly, Gudjohnsen and Ezquerro are almost definitely following Saviola out the door. Most likely Giuly would be too, although his exit would only be tangentially related to Henry.
Second, how are Barca going to play next season? I can't see a way of playing Henry, Eto'o, Ronaldinho and Messi at the same time without sacrificing our midfield advantage and completely destablising the team in a way that will make the already leaky defence even worse.
Apparently the way club management have worked out is that Barca have about 55 games a season and things will be okay if each of the four end up playing about 35 of those. I don't really see how that would work. Who is Rijkaard going to leave out in a big Champions League game? Or I suppose Messi loses out because he's the most junior star amongst the four, but that would be incredibly stupid from any point of view if Barca want to hold on to him at all.
The third option is to offload one of Ronaldinho and Eto'o. (We all agree that Messi is going nowhere, right?) I've said from the beginning that if we gain Henry and lose Eto'o, I think we'd come out worse off, but this is a real possibility now. Sure, Eto'o's relationship with Laporta can pretty much ensure his continuity at the club, but as he himself acknowledges, he has enemies both within and outside the club, and they could make his lift difficult to a point where he is forced out.
Personally, I wouldn't want this to happen, as I believe Sammy to be a crucial player for Barca's successes in the last few seasons who is still very young and has loads more to offer the club. Plus, unlike the whiners (Edmilson - who's just had a knee operation, ruling him out for six months and won't be playing for Barca again - and Deco), he's ready to accept the newly imposed squad rules:
In any place where there is a group there are rules to respect. We have been fortunate that Frank and Jan have given us some freedom or, in other words, responsibility. If they believe that the rules have to be tightened, then it's probably right.Ronaldinho himself has remained neutral on the subject of Laporta's statements, merely stating that he's not been 100% this season because he's exhausted. Which is fair enough, really, and I'd argue that he's done a lot for the team during the season despite being obviously unfit and a somewhat destabilising influence. Have a nice holiday, Ronnie, and we'll hope to see the old you back next season.
While we're on the subject of resting, and players who need it, how about our beloved Captain Caveman? In a clear demonstration of the absurdity of flying all over the world playing far too many meaningless friendlies, Carles Puyol suffered ligament damage in Barca's friendly match in South Africa and will be out for 3 months, missing the entire pre-season and about a month of league action, not to mention a couple of Champions League clashes. He was operated on as soon as possible, and here's what the doctor had to say:
...he has already said that the recovery time must be shorter, because he does not want to spend as much time without playing.Vintage Puyol. Not the first time he's been desperate to rush back from injury to help the team, and probably not the last. What a guy. I hope his recovery goes well and that he's back with us soon.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Champions League results round up and quarters draw
I know I've said this enough times before, but: there really isn't much that can beat the Champions League for drama, is there?
Valencia CF 0 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg, Valencia through on away goals)
Well done to Valencia. They had arguably the most difficult task of all the Spanish teams, and managed to succeed where Barca and Real failed. I'll be cheering them on now for the Cup (especially given the quarterfinal draw), although it's hard to see how they're going to make it with Baraja out for the rest of the season, Vicente injured yet again and bans sure to result from that rather comical brawl with Inter. Poor Argie Nicolas Burdisso is never going to look the same again.
Joking aside, the fact that Burdisso and Dacourt had to play in midfield because Inter were missing Vieira and Cambiasso had a big impact, which I predicted in my preview. And of course Valencia are excellent at grinding out results when they need to.
My prediction was: Valencia to squeak it, and I was right.
Chelsea FC 2 - 1 FC Porto (3-2 agg)
As predicted. Credit to Porto for at least giving it a good go, though. If this current team can hold on to their star players and continue to develop, they may as yet make something of themselves in European competition. Chelsea on the other hand are now favourites to win the Champions League. I'm not so sure, but they've got to be at least up there.
One last, overdue note: Didier Drogba. What a player. I still bitterly dislike his antics, but as the man himself pointed out once, you can't argue with his work rate. Or his goal-scoring record.
My prediction was: Chelsea to go through. Me and every other wannabe pundit in the world, and we were right.
Liverpool FC 0 - 1 FC Barcelona (2-2 agg, Liverpool through on away goals)
Light-hearted note first: the rule of the yellow away strip held (5 wins and 2 draws in Europe), which makes me ever more convinced that the awful orange away kit was a bad idea.
On a more serious note, this is not an easy game for me to write about, but I have to say, congratulations to Liverpool, they deserved to go through, and good luck to them for the rest of the competition. Fair play, too.
And good for Gudjohnsen - he desperately needed a goal. Sure, it didn't amount to anything, but in terms of pride and morale I think it was important to at least leave Anfield with a victory. After all, we all know what's coming up this weekend.
Olympique Lyonnais 0 - 2 As Roma (0-2 agg)
Wow, what an upset. I don't know about you, but this was the result that really shocked me. Great work by Roma, and terrible from Lyon, who no doubt expected much more from this campaign given their squad's potential and their progress through their domestic league.
My prediction was: Lyon to go through. Obviously, I was dead wrong.
Arsenal FC 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (1-2 agg)
What a game from Alex! Must have been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster for the poor guy. Ronald Koeman's teams have this knack of reaching above their actual skill level through organisation, hard work and (it must be said) riding their luck. It's not pretty, but it's very effective. He did it with Benfica, and he's doing it again with PSV.
As for Arsenal, it was the same old story. They created enough chances to win the game many times over, but no one could put the ball in the back of the net. Believe me, Barca fans know all about that particular frustration, but that's the way football is, I suppose.
It's rather sad, really, since they do have a very talented young squad, and yet their season is pretty much over barring fighting Liverpool for 3rd place in the Premiership, which isn't exactly an inspiring battle-cry.
(I'm pleased to note that Sun Xiang of PSV became the first Chinese footballer to start a game in the Champions League. He also helped set up Alex's goal, if I'm not mistaken.)
My prediction was: I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close. I was wrong. It was close, but not like that.
Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Lille OSC (2-0 agg)
Not as easy as it could have been for Man Utd, but in this instance I can't really blame Sir Alex for not using 4-4-2, since he's missing so many attacking players. (But I have to say this: Silvestre instead of Heinze? Seriously?) United were not at their best against a determined but limited team, and probably made their fans suffer a bit unnecessarily.
I'm glad my wish that Larsson would give United fans something to remember him by came true. The man's a byword for reliability, and he's got a great sense of occasion. Of course he was going to score.
My prediction was: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2. Except they didn't, and laboured to victory instead.
FC Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF (4-4 agg, Bayern go through on away goals)
Oh dear. You've got to feel sorry for Capello, his best laid plans shattered by an embarrassing slip-up in the first 12 seconds of the game. For God's sake, from their own kick-off! It has to be said that I think there isn't much difference between the two teams - in fact, Real can probably play better football. But they had very bad luck with injury to crucial team members (Beckham, Reyes, Cannavaro) and going to Germany is always difficult.
(Roberto Carlos has just announced he's leaving at the end of the season. I'm sorry to say this, given how great he used to be, but it's probably about time to quit while he's ahead.)
My prediction was: Bayern it is. And I was right. Real are just as fragile as Barca, so the kind of lead they had really wasn't enough.
AC Milan 1 - 0 Celtic FC (1-0 agg, Milan through after extra time)
A heroic performance from Celtic. I don't want to sound patronising, because after all they've worked so hard over the 2 legs with little reward, but I bet this did no harm to their reputation Europe-wide. Very impressive, and I look forward to seeing them back in the Champions League next season.
As for Milan, now that they're through to the quarterfinals I think they're proper contenders. But they're not a great team. (I haven't seen a truly great team in this year's Champions League yet.) Still, they're very good at the knockout stages of European competition. (Like I predicted: ability to score late goals when they really need to at home, check.)
My prediction was: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though. And that's exactly what happened. Almost depressingly predicable, that one.
the draw
1) Milan v Bayern Munich - ooh, intriguing. Very much in the traditional of grand old European showdowns. Except neither team are in top shape, really. I'd expect Milan to outclass Bayern, at least based on current showings.
2) PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool - but they just played each other in the group stages! I think Liverpool need to be wary of PSV, despite the results earlier in the season. Koeman's crafty coach, and so is Benitez. It's going to be interesting to watch the tactical battle, if nothing else. I think Liverpool will make it through this one.
3) Roma v Manchester United - unconventional match-up, but very interesting. Roma can give United trouble, especially if they're still having injury and form problems by then. A lot depends on how fit Roma's own razor-thin squad is, too. Hard to say, especially given United's need to concentrate on their title race. I'll delay judgement on this one, but I have a sneaking feeling that if United aren't careful, they could stumble here.
4) Chelsea v Valencia - this is the draw that made me happiest. Valencia are the kind of team that knows how to play against teams like Chelsea, and they have a canny coach in Quique Sanchez Flores who will be a match for Mourinho. The only problem is that Valencia's injuries are mounting up again: Baraja and Vicente for starters. I think those two are more important than whatever suspensions UEFA will hand out for the brawl against Inter, since Navarro isn't a starter and Marchena, who's the only other one up on charges, isn't essential either. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'll call it for Valencia. Barring yet another meltdown, I think they can do it.
semi-finals: W4 v W2, W3 v W1
My pick for the competition overall? The bookies in England have got the English clubs at the top of their lists, with Chelsea favourite. I can see that logic, since the 3 English clubs are fairly well-placed, but my instincts say not to rule out Milan or Valencia either.
Valencia CF 0 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg, Valencia through on away goals)
Well done to Valencia. They had arguably the most difficult task of all the Spanish teams, and managed to succeed where Barca and Real failed. I'll be cheering them on now for the Cup (especially given the quarterfinal draw), although it's hard to see how they're going to make it with Baraja out for the rest of the season, Vicente injured yet again and bans sure to result from that rather comical brawl with Inter. Poor Argie Nicolas Burdisso is never going to look the same again.
Joking aside, the fact that Burdisso and Dacourt had to play in midfield because Inter were missing Vieira and Cambiasso had a big impact, which I predicted in my preview. And of course Valencia are excellent at grinding out results when they need to.
My prediction was: Valencia to squeak it, and I was right.
Chelsea FC 2 - 1 FC Porto (3-2 agg)
As predicted. Credit to Porto for at least giving it a good go, though. If this current team can hold on to their star players and continue to develop, they may as yet make something of themselves in European competition. Chelsea on the other hand are now favourites to win the Champions League. I'm not so sure, but they've got to be at least up there.
One last, overdue note: Didier Drogba. What a player. I still bitterly dislike his antics, but as the man himself pointed out once, you can't argue with his work rate. Or his goal-scoring record.
My prediction was: Chelsea to go through. Me and every other wannabe pundit in the world, and we were right.
Liverpool FC 0 - 1 FC Barcelona (2-2 agg, Liverpool through on away goals)
Light-hearted note first: the rule of the yellow away strip held (5 wins and 2 draws in Europe), which makes me ever more convinced that the awful orange away kit was a bad idea.
On a more serious note, this is not an easy game for me to write about, but I have to say, congratulations to Liverpool, they deserved to go through, and good luck to them for the rest of the competition. Fair play, too.
And good for Gudjohnsen - he desperately needed a goal. Sure, it didn't amount to anything, but in terms of pride and morale I think it was important to at least leave Anfield with a victory. After all, we all know what's coming up this weekend.
Olympique Lyonnais 0 - 2 As Roma (0-2 agg)
Wow, what an upset. I don't know about you, but this was the result that really shocked me. Great work by Roma, and terrible from Lyon, who no doubt expected much more from this campaign given their squad's potential and their progress through their domestic league.
My prediction was: Lyon to go through. Obviously, I was dead wrong.
Arsenal FC 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (1-2 agg)
What a game from Alex! Must have been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster for the poor guy. Ronald Koeman's teams have this knack of reaching above their actual skill level through organisation, hard work and (it must be said) riding their luck. It's not pretty, but it's very effective. He did it with Benfica, and he's doing it again with PSV.
As for Arsenal, it was the same old story. They created enough chances to win the game many times over, but no one could put the ball in the back of the net. Believe me, Barca fans know all about that particular frustration, but that's the way football is, I suppose.
It's rather sad, really, since they do have a very talented young squad, and yet their season is pretty much over barring fighting Liverpool for 3rd place in the Premiership, which isn't exactly an inspiring battle-cry.
(I'm pleased to note that Sun Xiang of PSV became the first Chinese footballer to start a game in the Champions League. He also helped set up Alex's goal, if I'm not mistaken.)
My prediction was: I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close. I was wrong. It was close, but not like that.
Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Lille OSC (2-0 agg)
Not as easy as it could have been for Man Utd, but in this instance I can't really blame Sir Alex for not using 4-4-2, since he's missing so many attacking players. (But I have to say this: Silvestre instead of Heinze? Seriously?) United were not at their best against a determined but limited team, and probably made their fans suffer a bit unnecessarily.
I'm glad my wish that Larsson would give United fans something to remember him by came true. The man's a byword for reliability, and he's got a great sense of occasion. Of course he was going to score.
My prediction was: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2. Except they didn't, and laboured to victory instead.
FC Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF (4-4 agg, Bayern go through on away goals)
Oh dear. You've got to feel sorry for Capello, his best laid plans shattered by an embarrassing slip-up in the first 12 seconds of the game. For God's sake, from their own kick-off! It has to be said that I think there isn't much difference between the two teams - in fact, Real can probably play better football. But they had very bad luck with injury to crucial team members (Beckham, Reyes, Cannavaro) and going to Germany is always difficult.
(Roberto Carlos has just announced he's leaving at the end of the season. I'm sorry to say this, given how great he used to be, but it's probably about time to quit while he's ahead.)
My prediction was: Bayern it is. And I was right. Real are just as fragile as Barca, so the kind of lead they had really wasn't enough.
AC Milan 1 - 0 Celtic FC (1-0 agg, Milan through after extra time)
A heroic performance from Celtic. I don't want to sound patronising, because after all they've worked so hard over the 2 legs with little reward, but I bet this did no harm to their reputation Europe-wide. Very impressive, and I look forward to seeing them back in the Champions League next season.
As for Milan, now that they're through to the quarterfinals I think they're proper contenders. But they're not a great team. (I haven't seen a truly great team in this year's Champions League yet.) Still, they're very good at the knockout stages of European competition. (Like I predicted: ability to score late goals when they really need to at home, check.)
My prediction was: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though. And that's exactly what happened. Almost depressingly predicable, that one.
the draw
1) Milan v Bayern Munich - ooh, intriguing. Very much in the traditional of grand old European showdowns. Except neither team are in top shape, really. I'd expect Milan to outclass Bayern, at least based on current showings.
2) PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool - but they just played each other in the group stages! I think Liverpool need to be wary of PSV, despite the results earlier in the season. Koeman's crafty coach, and so is Benitez. It's going to be interesting to watch the tactical battle, if nothing else. I think Liverpool will make it through this one.
3) Roma v Manchester United - unconventional match-up, but very interesting. Roma can give United trouble, especially if they're still having injury and form problems by then. A lot depends on how fit Roma's own razor-thin squad is, too. Hard to say, especially given United's need to concentrate on their title race. I'll delay judgement on this one, but I have a sneaking feeling that if United aren't careful, they could stumble here.
4) Chelsea v Valencia - this is the draw that made me happiest. Valencia are the kind of team that knows how to play against teams like Chelsea, and they have a canny coach in Quique Sanchez Flores who will be a match for Mourinho. The only problem is that Valencia's injuries are mounting up again: Baraja and Vicente for starters. I think those two are more important than whatever suspensions UEFA will hand out for the brawl against Inter, since Navarro isn't a starter and Marchena, who's the only other one up on charges, isn't essential either. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'll call it for Valencia. Barring yet another meltdown, I think they can do it.
semi-finals: W4 v W2, W3 v W1
My pick for the competition overall? The bookies in England have got the English clubs at the top of their lists, with Chelsea favourite. I can see that logic, since the 3 English clubs are fairly well-placed, but my instincts say not to rule out Milan or Valencia either.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Champions League last 16: previews and predictions
I was discussing Champions League prospects with someone, and he bought up the idea that this year could see all four semi-finalists end up being Premiership teams. Personally, I would like at least one La Liga team to advance at least to the semi-finals, although none of the 3 have it easy, unlike all 4 Premiership teams.
Valencia CF - FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg)
Valencia is in the best position of all the Spanish clubs, but they also have arguably the most formidable opposition. No offense to any Reds out there, but you've got to admit Inter's form is pretty frightening. So it's a good thing Valencia has those 2 valuable away goals. If David Albelda weren't suspended I'd be confident of Valencia holding Inter to a 0-0 draw at home to go through, but they're a lot less solid without him. To balance this out, Patrick Vieira and Esteban Cambiasso are both unavaliable for Inter through injury, which is bad news for them since even a squad as large as theirs can't compensate completely for the loss of 2 players who perform similar functions in midfield.
(Optimistic) prediction: Valencia to squeak it. Nothing against Inter, in fact I rather like them because of the Argentineans, but I'd like to have at least one Spanish club in it for the long haul. And, you know, only two Spanish clubs have ever won the Champions League.
Chelsea FC - FC Porto (1-1 agg)
Porto are a good team, but they're no match for Chelsea. This was a very good draw for the Blues, and I don't expect them to throw anything away. If Porto somehow manage to scrape through, it would be a minor miracle, because on quality terms they really haven't got enough to compete against Chelsea, even without John Terry.
Prediction: Chelsea to go through. As they say, anything can and has happened in the Champions League, but the Blues are simply too solid.
Liverpool FC - FC Barcelona (2-1 agg)
This is it. The big one. I've seen Liverpool bloggers referring to this game as season-defining for them, in light of Premiership and Cup results, and while Barca are still in with a shout for both the League and the Copa del Rey a lot depends on how this game plays out for us too. We all know about Liverpool's strength at Anfield and their ability to defend solidly and counter with great effect.
Barca, on the other hand, have to go all out. Which isn't too different from our usual approach anyway, but as Rijkaard says we really don't have much to lose at this point. The trident of Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi might finally be reunited, and persumably Deco and Thuram will be restored to the starting line-up. I have a hunch that Zambrotta will be used as left-back with Oleguer on the right, since Gio and Belletti have been left out of the squad. As for the rest, it's anyone's guess. Like the Barca press keep saying, we need a miracle. Or just the whole team, playing at their best - no, beyond their best.
Barca have been through a lot of ups and downs this season - from the sublime to the ridiculous; injuries, slumps, in-fighting, disappointment as well as those moments of great football we all live for. Frankly, I'm a little emotionally wrung out by it all. But that's football. I'm not going to predict anything for this game. We all know what the obvious conclusion is. The odds are stacked against Barca - and I have to point out, due in large part to the team's performance at the Nou Camp. But nevermind all that. I'm not even demanding a result that allows us to go through.
Remember that epic game at Stamford Bridge? No, not the triumph of last season, but the heartbreak of 2 seasons ago. It's a bitter memory, but I can't complain about the spirit in which the team conducted themselves on the pitch.
The football journalist James Lawton, recalling Barca's game against Benfica in the European Cup final of 1961, wrote this:
I just want the boys to do their best. As long as I can see that they put everything into it, that's enough.
Visca el Barca!
(On a less serious note, this game will see the return of the much loved - well, by me anyway - fluorescent yellow away shirts used last season, which serve as the third kits this season. Contrary to reports, they're not being used because they're 'lucky'. Both Barca's home and away kits have been deemed to clash with Liverpool's famous red home jersey.)
Olympique Lyonnais - As Roma (0-0 agg)
According to all reports the first leg was dreadfully dull. Hopefully this time at least one of the teams will come out and play like they actually want to win it. Both teams are hungry for Champions League success, Lyon because their domination of Ligue 1 is getting a bit boring, Roma because they have no chance of winning Serie A despite their best efforts.
Prediction: Lyon have more in the tank and Roma can be rather neurotic away from home in Europe. Lyon to go through.
Arsenal FC - PSV Eindhoven (0-1 agg)
Arsenal did not do themselves justice in front of goal in the first leg. On paper, this was a plum draw for them. But that's Arsenal for you this season. They're more than capable of pulling out a result at Ashburton Grove, of course, and PSV haven't exactly been having the greatest of times themselves.
Prediction: Hard to call, since PSV are difficult to break down and the Gunners have had trouble in the past with teams like them. I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close.
Manchester United FC - Lille OSC (1-1 agg)
This tie has come to have a surprising amount of bad blood associated with it over the last few seasons. Not quite on the level of Chelsea-Barca or Real-Bayern, but close enough, especially with the mayhem in the first leg. This was the best possible draw for Man Utd, so they really should go through easily. Anything else, and they'll know they've screwed up royally. Personally, I don't care either way, but a Larsson goal would be nice. Farewell present and all, even though Ferguson is busy insisting to anyone who will listen that they won't miss him once he's gone. Of course you will, Sir Alex. We all end up wishing he'd stay longer. (Besides, isn't poor Ole injured again?)
Prediction: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2.
FC Bayern Munich - Real Madrid CF (2-3 agg)
Until Mark van Bommel scored that cracking goal, it was all looking so good for Real. Now they have to go to Germany, where they've traditionally not enjoyed themselves and suffer for 90 minutes. Make no mistake, Bayern may not be very good this season, but they're still good enough to give Real trouble. Especially since poor David Beckham's injured. (I kind of feel terrible for him - what a time to get injured! Just when things are going so well...and now he's going to miss his last Clasico as well.) Beckham's potential replacement Reyes also got injured in the same game, which means that several more Capello exiles might have to be dusted off for a run out. On the Bayern side, they're missing Bastian Schweinsteiger through suspension, which is a big loss for them.
Prediction: difficult one to call, given that both sides are weakened and showing wobbly form. I think Real will really miss Beckham, though. I'd like to see Real scrape through (the more Spanish teams, the merrier), but my gut feeling is that's not too likely. Bayern it is.
AC Milan - Celtic FC (0-0 agg)
Celtic have done very well to come this far and still be in with a shot at progressing, but I felt that their big chance to grab an advantage was at home in the first tie. Milan are very, very good at scoring late goals when they need to at home in European competition, and they're not nearly as crap as they were at the beginning of the season. Besides, Celtic are generally crap away from home in Europe.
Prediction: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though.
Ahh, the intrigue of the Champions League. For me, the World Cup is only thing that surpasses it for pathos and excitement.
Valencia CF - FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg)
Valencia is in the best position of all the Spanish clubs, but they also have arguably the most formidable opposition. No offense to any Reds out there, but you've got to admit Inter's form is pretty frightening. So it's a good thing Valencia has those 2 valuable away goals. If David Albelda weren't suspended I'd be confident of Valencia holding Inter to a 0-0 draw at home to go through, but they're a lot less solid without him. To balance this out, Patrick Vieira and Esteban Cambiasso are both unavaliable for Inter through injury, which is bad news for them since even a squad as large as theirs can't compensate completely for the loss of 2 players who perform similar functions in midfield.
(Optimistic) prediction: Valencia to squeak it. Nothing against Inter, in fact I rather like them because of the Argentineans, but I'd like to have at least one Spanish club in it for the long haul. And, you know, only two Spanish clubs have ever won the Champions League.
Chelsea FC - FC Porto (1-1 agg)
Porto are a good team, but they're no match for Chelsea. This was a very good draw for the Blues, and I don't expect them to throw anything away. If Porto somehow manage to scrape through, it would be a minor miracle, because on quality terms they really haven't got enough to compete against Chelsea, even without John Terry.
Prediction: Chelsea to go through. As they say, anything can and has happened in the Champions League, but the Blues are simply too solid.
Liverpool FC - FC Barcelona (2-1 agg)
This is it. The big one. I've seen Liverpool bloggers referring to this game as season-defining for them, in light of Premiership and Cup results, and while Barca are still in with a shout for both the League and the Copa del Rey a lot depends on how this game plays out for us too. We all know about Liverpool's strength at Anfield and their ability to defend solidly and counter with great effect.
Barca, on the other hand, have to go all out. Which isn't too different from our usual approach anyway, but as Rijkaard says we really don't have much to lose at this point. The trident of Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi might finally be reunited, and persumably Deco and Thuram will be restored to the starting line-up. I have a hunch that Zambrotta will be used as left-back with Oleguer on the right, since Gio and Belletti have been left out of the squad. As for the rest, it's anyone's guess. Like the Barca press keep saying, we need a miracle. Or just the whole team, playing at their best - no, beyond their best.
Barca have been through a lot of ups and downs this season - from the sublime to the ridiculous; injuries, slumps, in-fighting, disappointment as well as those moments of great football we all live for. Frankly, I'm a little emotionally wrung out by it all. But that's football. I'm not going to predict anything for this game. We all know what the obvious conclusion is. The odds are stacked against Barca - and I have to point out, due in large part to the team's performance at the Nou Camp. But nevermind all that. I'm not even demanding a result that allows us to go through.
Remember that epic game at Stamford Bridge? No, not the triumph of last season, but the heartbreak of 2 seasons ago. It's a bitter memory, but I can't complain about the spirit in which the team conducted themselves on the pitch.
The football journalist James Lawton, recalling Barca's game against Benfica in the European Cup final of 1961, wrote this:
They were betrayed by some catastrophic goalkeeping and trailed 2-1 at half-time. In the second half Barça, inspired by Suarez, played astonishing football, hitting the bar and the post five times. But only one goal went in, and Barça, perversely, lost 3-2. However, one consolation was huge: it was the knowledge that beaten teams and football men can define themselves in defeat as well as victory...That last line has resonated with me ever since I first read it. A club like Barca, which prides itself on a tradition of attacking football come hell or high water, should always keep that in mind. We all like to idealize our club's image, it's true, (and some would claim that we preach image because we're not as successful) but that's a clear statement of the ideal as any I've ever read.
I just want the boys to do their best. As long as I can see that they put everything into it, that's enough.
Visca el Barca!
(On a less serious note, this game will see the return of the much loved - well, by me anyway - fluorescent yellow away shirts used last season, which serve as the third kits this season. Contrary to reports, they're not being used because they're 'lucky'. Both Barca's home and away kits have been deemed to clash with Liverpool's famous red home jersey.)
Olympique Lyonnais - As Roma (0-0 agg)
According to all reports the first leg was dreadfully dull. Hopefully this time at least one of the teams will come out and play like they actually want to win it. Both teams are hungry for Champions League success, Lyon because their domination of Ligue 1 is getting a bit boring, Roma because they have no chance of winning Serie A despite their best efforts.
Prediction: Lyon have more in the tank and Roma can be rather neurotic away from home in Europe. Lyon to go through.
Arsenal FC - PSV Eindhoven (0-1 agg)
Arsenal did not do themselves justice in front of goal in the first leg. On paper, this was a plum draw for them. But that's Arsenal for you this season. They're more than capable of pulling out a result at Ashburton Grove, of course, and PSV haven't exactly been having the greatest of times themselves.
Prediction: Hard to call, since PSV are difficult to break down and the Gunners have had trouble in the past with teams like them. I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close.
Manchester United FC - Lille OSC (1-1 agg)
This tie has come to have a surprising amount of bad blood associated with it over the last few seasons. Not quite on the level of Chelsea-Barca or Real-Bayern, but close enough, especially with the mayhem in the first leg. This was the best possible draw for Man Utd, so they really should go through easily. Anything else, and they'll know they've screwed up royally. Personally, I don't care either way, but a Larsson goal would be nice. Farewell present and all, even though Ferguson is busy insisting to anyone who will listen that they won't miss him once he's gone. Of course you will, Sir Alex. We all end up wishing he'd stay longer. (Besides, isn't poor Ole injured again?)
Prediction: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2.
FC Bayern Munich - Real Madrid CF (2-3 agg)
Until Mark van Bommel scored that cracking goal, it was all looking so good for Real. Now they have to go to Germany, where they've traditionally not enjoyed themselves and suffer for 90 minutes. Make no mistake, Bayern may not be very good this season, but they're still good enough to give Real trouble. Especially since poor David Beckham's injured. (I kind of feel terrible for him - what a time to get injured! Just when things are going so well...and now he's going to miss his last Clasico as well.) Beckham's potential replacement Reyes also got injured in the same game, which means that several more Capello exiles might have to be dusted off for a run out. On the Bayern side, they're missing Bastian Schweinsteiger through suspension, which is a big loss for them.
Prediction: difficult one to call, given that both sides are weakened and showing wobbly form. I think Real will really miss Beckham, though. I'd like to see Real scrape through (the more Spanish teams, the merrier), but my gut feeling is that's not too likely. Bayern it is.
AC Milan - Celtic FC (0-0 agg)
Celtic have done very well to come this far and still be in with a shot at progressing, but I felt that their big chance to grab an advantage was at home in the first tie. Milan are very, very good at scoring late goals when they need to at home in European competition, and they're not nearly as crap as they were at the beginning of the season. Besides, Celtic are generally crap away from home in Europe.
Prediction: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though.
Ahh, the intrigue of the Champions League. For me, the World Cup is only thing that surpasses it for pathos and excitement.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Champions League last 16: early predictions
A lot can change between now and February, it's true, but the essential quality of a team who can win the Champions League shouldn't vary greatly from week to week anyway. So here are my early assessments, which I'll update as the ties get closer.
FC Barcelona-Liverpool FC
The pick of the bunch, for me, along with the next one down. There are obviously a lot of storylines surrounding the tie: the 05-06 holders versus the 04-05 winners; Garcia, Zenden and Reina returning to Catalonia, Rafa Benitez, Mark Gonzalez and Xabi Alonso trending familiar ground; and so on.
It's hard to predict a result, given the bumpy form of both teams (which suggest that neither are favourites to win the whole thing), although things seem to be looking up for Liverpool lately. A lot will depend on the injury situation and the fixture list, the latter of which will be a major disadvantage to Barca. It will be very difficult for the Spanish side, and I really doubt that the games will be great spectacles even if we do get through. Those who think otherwise need to check their expectations against the team's lack of consistency.
Real Madrid CF-FC Bayern Munich
A classic match-up between European giants. In a lot of ways, I think the sense of occasion surrounding this tie will be greater than the matches themselves. Real Madrid also lack a bit of consistency in their performances - sometimes they can actually produce pretty good football - but even when they play awful, negative stuff they can still get the result. Unfortunately Bayern aren't exactly the most exciting team to watch either, not to mention they are a diminished force this season with the personnel changes that have gone on. I think Real Madrid to go through, but not by a whole lot.
FC Internazionale Milano-Valencia CF
What kind of reward is Inter for topping your group? Poor Valencia. They do have an awful, awful record against Inter, including some big defeats at home. Plus, their situation in La Liga isn't very good right now, what with all the points they dropped when major players were injured. That said, they are looking much better now, and will probably have most of their players back by the time this game rolls around. It's hard to say what will happen, because both sides have a track record of letting a perfectly good thing implode on them.
Inter are expected to win Serie A this season, so they are under some pressure. Whether or not they will crack again this time is up in the air - the squad does seem to handle big occasions slightly better now. I'd still question Mancini's coaching skills, but what a squad he has at his disposal. But Valencia also have a large, high quality and - most impressively - very Spanish squad when they're not having an injury crisis. I have a feeling Valencia are getting tougher, just as Inter are. Another close one, I think. Valencia to give Inter some scares, but Inter to hold on -just - and go through.
AS Roma-Olympique Lyonnais
This should be interesting. Lyon are in great form despite having a very depleted forward line through injuries. In reality, they can replace almost anyone, even the excellent Fred, but as long as Juninho is there and firing they're okay. But if he gets injured they're going to struggle. Roma are notoriously poor travellers in Europe, but the home leg in Rome will provide a stiff test for Lyon's ambitions. The French champions have the advantage of not really having to think about their league, since they have a ridiculous lead there already, unlike Roma, who still dream of catching Inter and winning the title but have a bit of chasing to do. Lyon to go through pretty comfortably, as they always do at this stage.
Celtic FC-AC Milan
It depends on how much Milan want this. That seems like a ridiculous thing to say, but I can't really see what's preventing them from doing better, apart from desire. Even with injuries they should not be nearly this bad. Celtic are almost never to be beaten for their fierce desire and commitment in Europe, and their domestic situation is much better than Milan's.
Of course, if Milan can win the Champions League, they can stop worrying about securing 4th spot in Serie A. Let's face it, they shouldn't have been allowed into the competition this year at all, but they got a lifeline from UEFA, along with one of the easiest groups I've ever seen. Nice. If they don't win this tie it will be all their own fault.
Celtic are almost unbeatable at home, but Milan should really take the home leg, even if the injury problems persist. That said, right now Gila is the only one of their forwards actually scoring, which is not a good situation considering his record of 0 goals from the CL last season. Difficult one to call, as it depends on a lot of factors that can change very quickly, but for now I'll go for Milan to squeak through by a couple of late, late goals at home. As they always do.
FC Porto-Chelsea FC
Much as I would like Porto to pull off an upset - not for the reason you might suspect, but more because I would like on-form Argies Lucho Gonzalez and Lisandro Lopez to advance in the Champions League - I don't think it's going to happen. The English champions are too well-organised, too strong mentally and physically and too resourceful. Their current injury concerns and problems at the back should be sorted by then, too. Whatever their players are saying about concentrating on the Premiership, make no mistake, they think this is their year to win the CL. Tournament favourites (yes they are, no matter what anyone tries to spin you with) Chelsea to go through easily.
PSV Eindhoven-Arsenal FC
I actually forgot about this tie at first when I was writing this post, so that tells you just how interested I am. Still, Arsenal should beware PSV, who can play in the style that the Gunners find most frustrating and do it quite efficiently. It may not be pretty, but it might just work. Ronald Koeman is a pretty smart coach who's only getting better at this CL business.
A lot depends on which Arsenal turns up for the games, but I think PSV have an outside chance of an upset here. Not because they might outplay Arsenal, you understand. If PSV do end up going through, Arsene ain't going to be happy, because it will probably be because they've just parked the bus and hit them either on the counter or with a set-piece. Not good for football, but very possible.
Lille OSC-Manchester United FC
This game might seem even more boring than the previous one mentioned, but at least it has a nice backstory to it. Lille got two good results against United last season during a horrible group stage in which they managed to finish bottom, below what many British pundits call 'the French minnows'. Personally, I'd like to remind them that those so-called minnows are regulars in the last 16, and are always there or thereabouts in the French league, finishing either second or third behind the giants Lyon.
(Side note: If you look at their record, United really are generally very poor away from home in Europe, aren't they? And I thought Barca have been wobbly away from home this season...)
Anyway, now that Barca have avoided drawing United, my fondest hope in this tie is for Larsson to come on, score - preferably the decider - and leave a hero. Why not? It seems to happen everywhere he goes.
But that's just my personal fancy. Realisticly, United need to beware the same things as Arsenal - Lille are fairly tight at the back, not to mention mentally tougher from their trials and tribulations in Europe for the last few years. Witness their defeat of - a very poor, it must be said - Milan on the last match-day. Barring an injury crisis, United to have too much attacking power for the French team - but only if Fergie remembers to stick to 4-4-2.
FC Barcelona-Liverpool FC
The pick of the bunch, for me, along with the next one down. There are obviously a lot of storylines surrounding the tie: the 05-06 holders versus the 04-05 winners; Garcia, Zenden and Reina returning to Catalonia, Rafa Benitez, Mark Gonzalez and Xabi Alonso trending familiar ground; and so on.
It's hard to predict a result, given the bumpy form of both teams (which suggest that neither are favourites to win the whole thing), although things seem to be looking up for Liverpool lately. A lot will depend on the injury situation and the fixture list, the latter of which will be a major disadvantage to Barca. It will be very difficult for the Spanish side, and I really doubt that the games will be great spectacles even if we do get through. Those who think otherwise need to check their expectations against the team's lack of consistency.
Real Madrid CF-FC Bayern Munich
A classic match-up between European giants. In a lot of ways, I think the sense of occasion surrounding this tie will be greater than the matches themselves. Real Madrid also lack a bit of consistency in their performances - sometimes they can actually produce pretty good football - but even when they play awful, negative stuff they can still get the result. Unfortunately Bayern aren't exactly the most exciting team to watch either, not to mention they are a diminished force this season with the personnel changes that have gone on. I think Real Madrid to go through, but not by a whole lot.
FC Internazionale Milano-Valencia CF
What kind of reward is Inter for topping your group? Poor Valencia. They do have an awful, awful record against Inter, including some big defeats at home. Plus, their situation in La Liga isn't very good right now, what with all the points they dropped when major players were injured. That said, they are looking much better now, and will probably have most of their players back by the time this game rolls around. It's hard to say what will happen, because both sides have a track record of letting a perfectly good thing implode on them.
Inter are expected to win Serie A this season, so they are under some pressure. Whether or not they will crack again this time is up in the air - the squad does seem to handle big occasions slightly better now. I'd still question Mancini's coaching skills, but what a squad he has at his disposal. But Valencia also have a large, high quality and - most impressively - very Spanish squad when they're not having an injury crisis. I have a feeling Valencia are getting tougher, just as Inter are. Another close one, I think. Valencia to give Inter some scares, but Inter to hold on -just - and go through.
AS Roma-Olympique Lyonnais
This should be interesting. Lyon are in great form despite having a very depleted forward line through injuries. In reality, they can replace almost anyone, even the excellent Fred, but as long as Juninho is there and firing they're okay. But if he gets injured they're going to struggle. Roma are notoriously poor travellers in Europe, but the home leg in Rome will provide a stiff test for Lyon's ambitions. The French champions have the advantage of not really having to think about their league, since they have a ridiculous lead there already, unlike Roma, who still dream of catching Inter and winning the title but have a bit of chasing to do. Lyon to go through pretty comfortably, as they always do at this stage.
Celtic FC-AC Milan
It depends on how much Milan want this. That seems like a ridiculous thing to say, but I can't really see what's preventing them from doing better, apart from desire. Even with injuries they should not be nearly this bad. Celtic are almost never to be beaten for their fierce desire and commitment in Europe, and their domestic situation is much better than Milan's.
Of course, if Milan can win the Champions League, they can stop worrying about securing 4th spot in Serie A. Let's face it, they shouldn't have been allowed into the competition this year at all, but they got a lifeline from UEFA, along with one of the easiest groups I've ever seen. Nice. If they don't win this tie it will be all their own fault.
Celtic are almost unbeatable at home, but Milan should really take the home leg, even if the injury problems persist. That said, right now Gila is the only one of their forwards actually scoring, which is not a good situation considering his record of 0 goals from the CL last season. Difficult one to call, as it depends on a lot of factors that can change very quickly, but for now I'll go for Milan to squeak through by a couple of late, late goals at home. As they always do.
FC Porto-Chelsea FC
Much as I would like Porto to pull off an upset - not for the reason you might suspect, but more because I would like on-form Argies Lucho Gonzalez and Lisandro Lopez to advance in the Champions League - I don't think it's going to happen. The English champions are too well-organised, too strong mentally and physically and too resourceful. Their current injury concerns and problems at the back should be sorted by then, too. Whatever their players are saying about concentrating on the Premiership, make no mistake, they think this is their year to win the CL. Tournament favourites (yes they are, no matter what anyone tries to spin you with) Chelsea to go through easily.
PSV Eindhoven-Arsenal FC
I actually forgot about this tie at first when I was writing this post, so that tells you just how interested I am. Still, Arsenal should beware PSV, who can play in the style that the Gunners find most frustrating and do it quite efficiently. It may not be pretty, but it might just work. Ronald Koeman is a pretty smart coach who's only getting better at this CL business.
A lot depends on which Arsenal turns up for the games, but I think PSV have an outside chance of an upset here. Not because they might outplay Arsenal, you understand. If PSV do end up going through, Arsene ain't going to be happy, because it will probably be because they've just parked the bus and hit them either on the counter or with a set-piece. Not good for football, but very possible.
Lille OSC-Manchester United FC
This game might seem even more boring than the previous one mentioned, but at least it has a nice backstory to it. Lille got two good results against United last season during a horrible group stage in which they managed to finish bottom, below what many British pundits call 'the French minnows'. Personally, I'd like to remind them that those so-called minnows are regulars in the last 16, and are always there or thereabouts in the French league, finishing either second or third behind the giants Lyon.
(Side note: If you look at their record, United really are generally very poor away from home in Europe, aren't they? And I thought Barca have been wobbly away from home this season...)
Anyway, now that Barca have avoided drawing United, my fondest hope in this tie is for Larsson to come on, score - preferably the decider - and leave a hero. Why not? It seems to happen everywhere he goes.
But that's just my personal fancy. Realisticly, United need to beware the same things as Arsenal - Lille are fairly tight at the back, not to mention mentally tougher from their trials and tribulations in Europe for the last few years. Witness their defeat of - a very poor, it must be said - Milan on the last match-day. Barring an injury crisis, United to have too much attacking power for the French team - but only if Fergie remembers to stick to 4-4-2.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Champions League: early predictions
I don't think we've seen a team that look like they could sweep all before them yet. Sure, that sometimes means nothing in this competition (see Liverpool 04-05, Porto 03-04) but what I mean in this case is a team who are showing consistent form in the group stages so far. Compare Barca's group stage results last year with what they're like this time around: in 05-06 they won all their group stage games, only drawing one away in Greece. They scored 16 goals and let in only 3. This time they're struggling to qualify. But more on that later.
Take a look at the usual suspects. While Arsenal should be contenders because of the quality of their squad and how well they can play, they still have trouble finding their way through a well-organised defence, as their domestic form and both results against CSKA have shown. It will be interesting to see what Porto can make of them second time round. Manchester United? They just got beaten by Copenhagen. Yeah, it wasn't a full-strength side, but that illustrates their problem. I think it's probably better for Sir Alex to focus on winning the domestic battle rather than obsessing about another European victory - his squad's far too thin for both, especially considering the ridiculous amount of games in the English calender (2 domestic cups? what?) Injuries to a couple of players would damage the ability of his squad severely.
Liverpool can never be discounted. Rafa Benitez is very, very good at winning cup competitions, as his record shows. Contrast their domestic form with their CL form. At their best, they don't let anything through in defence and break decisively in attack. It might not be the type of football I like to watch, but it works very well. That said, you do get the sense that they could struggle a bit because of the amount of ground they need to make up domestically to even get near Chelsea and Manchester United at this point. Still, they look the most likely of the English clubs to challenge, with one exception I'll discuss at the end.
Moving on to Italy, I think a lot of people were discounting the Italian teams at the beginning for various reasons related to the match-fixing scandal. But they are notoriously good at cup competitions. Roma don't look like winners, frankly. Their squad is too small and lacking in quality to sustain compaigns on both fronts, especially since their fans want to have a go at winning Serie A this season.
Inter on the other hand do have a big enough squad, but they're also notoriously liable to fall apart in the later stages of big competitions. I watched them play very well in their win over Milan, but got the sense that a well-organised defence (which Milan's wasn't, I can assure you) could stop them. Crespo's a great forward, and Cruz is producing the goods as usual, but Ibrahimovic isn't the most consistent striker in the world and Adriano is next to useless at this point. They're fairly solid at the back, which is very useful in cup competitions, but somehow still fail to convince me that they have the will to go all the way. Opposing arguments are welcome - I'd love to see good old Zanetti lift Big Cup if my team can't.
Just like Liverpool, Milan can never been discounted, even when they seem to be a bit down domestically. They lack a forward who guarantees goals because they let their best go to Chelsea and didn't replace him. That's going to be a big problem when the going gets tough. Kaka can't hit hattricks in every game. And then there's the defence. I get that most of these guys are legends, and Maldini still looked great when he came on in the Milan derby, but I don't understand how the club could have allowed their backline to become such a collection of monuments without bringing in young talent.
Can't Evil Overlord Berlusconi splash out some money to pluck promising young defenders out of the smaller European leagues to learn under the greats? Costacurta is over 40, you know, and 32' Television Set Cafu (nickname courtesy of the Guardian) isn't getting any younger. Even Nesta hasn't been on form this season after suffering injuries before the World Cup. Anyway, they've got some problems both up front and in the back. I don't see them going all the way, unless of course the draw favours them ridiculously, as happened in the group stages.
I wrote a while ago about how Valencia are the only ones who look like potential winners of the Spanish big three. It looks even worse for those of us who love La Liga now. Real are looking better under Capello, who after all is very experienced with winning cup competitions, but I think they still have some issues to sort out at the back. The real test will be what Lyon can do at the Bernabeu. Real are capable of winning games even if they don't play particularly well, which is a plus in the CL, but right now they are very much reliant on the form of a few players up front (Van Nistelrooy most importantly, and Robinho). Injuries could be a problem as the season drags on because of that. They also need to fight on at least 2 fronts.
Capello's choices so far seems like an indication that he's not taking the Copa del Rey seriously, but that still leaves the league, where Barca aren't going to take anything lying down and a whole host of clubs are nipping at their heels. In conclusion, they haven't really put in a performance to convince me yet (keeping in mind I am the type of person who criticized the Barca midfield after we won 5-0), although there are some good signs.
Valencia are a tricky bunch. I thought they'd be proper contenders at the beginning of the season, both in Europe and at home. Their squad is huge, brimming with talent, and they are a very well organised team. They have 2 brilliant strikers in Villa and Morientes who can't stop scoring, great wingers, a balanced midfield, and a solid backline led by the formidable Roberto Ayala. But their luck with injuries has been absolutely rotten. Half the first choice XI is injured. They've lost their wingers, pretty much all the midfielders and a whole lot of defenders as well. If this injury problem isn't sorted out soon, they can forget about challenging for the league.
Happily they've already qualified for the knockout stages of the CL, so they can focus on getting a complete squad back together in time for those fixtures. If they can manage that then perhaps they will go far. I'm not convinced by the consistency level of Quique Sanchez Flores' team, though. They always seem to crumble at key moments - see their attempts to keep up with Barca in the last 2 seasons, one of which resulted in them being overtaken by Real Madrid near the end and the other just as unsuccessful. By losing to Celta and Racing successively they seem to be showing similar symptoms this time round. That's something they'll have to fix. The CL is unforgiving to teams who fall apart under pressure.
Now we come to the defending champions. Like I pointed out at the beginning, not the best start this time compared to their barnstorming group stage run last season. Admittedly we have a harder group this time, but that shouldn't be an excuse for a team with title winning aspirations. Before even talking about Barca's chances of winning, they have to get out of the group stage, which in itself is going to be very difficult. They need to beat Levski away and then Bremen at home. Bremen in particular are on fire at the moment. Like Deco said, Barca will need to battle to the death at Camp Nou to win on the last matchday.
Assuming we do scramble out of our group somehow even with no strikers (one crocked, one half-crocked, the rest aren't actual strikers), a lot will depend on when Samuel Eto'o gets back, and what kind of form he's in. I believe based on the Chelsea game that Barca as a whole are finally finding some form, but the striker position is still our crucial weakness.
Moving away from the big 3 leagues and on to other contenders. Lyon are arguably the most in-form team in the CL right now. Their problem seems to be falling apart at the later stages. It will remain to be seen whether or not they can change that this time round. One massive advantage is their formidable lead domestically - they really don't have to work too hard to win the title, which will leave more resources for challenging in Europe. I'll reserve judgement on them until they play Real again.
Bayern Munich started this season by declaring that they'd be happy to be in the knockout stages. They've got great results in the group stage, but I'm not convinced they have what it takes to go too much further. Poldoski hasn't settled in; Mark van Bommel, while a good player, is no Ballack; they look shaky at the back and have a tricky domestic campaign this year with Bremen looking stronger. All in all, I don't see what's going to take them far.
Speaking of Werder Bremen, they would have a fair shot of getting past the round of 16 if they managed to qualify. Now, given my allegiances and the situation in the group I have to hope that Barca get through instead, but if it does happen (to much wailing and gashing of teeth on my part) at least Bremen are a positive, attacking team. To qualify they have to get a result at home against Chelsea and then away to Barcelona. Given their recent domestic form that looks very possible, although last season they arrived in the Camp Nou on the back of similar barnstorming domestic feats and were well beaten.
That said, they have improved from last season. Klose is as deadly as ever, especially with young strike partner Aaron Hunt helping out up front. Frings is as good as ever, and even their much-mocked defence is improving with the impressive Naldo and new signing Mertesacker impressing in particular. When on form, they can trouble the defence of any team. I'm stuck hoping that they don't qualify, which is not a nice position to be in because they play lovely football. Still, how insane is group A? The league leaders of England, Spain and Germany battling it out for 2 places.
PSV have looked pretty good at times this season, and they're always contenders, but I'm not sure how genuine their challenge will prove to be in the later stages. Same goes with Porto, if they manage to get through the group stages. I think one of the dark horses this time around could come from their group, namely CSKA Moscow. Their defence is notoriously wall-like and they've got quite a few skillful Brazilians up front, not to mention an exciting homegrown winger. A Villarreal-like run? Maybe. They've got the necessary qualities.
All of which brings me to the team who look most like winners right now. That's Chelsea. They have a big squad, no matter what Mourinho insists, full of quality players. They have a healthy mix of experience and young talent. They have a manager who knows how to win in this competition. Their only weakness as far as I can see is vulnerability along the wings, but hardly any teams use the wings properly these days. Lyon might give them a hard time, but otherwise they have the potential to beat anyone else, and they know it. Of course, whether or not that attitude will prove to be a stumbling block depends on how well Mourinho can regulate his team's mental state, and he can do that very well indeed. Unless they meet nemesis Liverpool again, or an on-form Barca with Samuel Eto'o back, I don't think too many teams stand a chance against them.
Take a look at the usual suspects. While Arsenal should be contenders because of the quality of their squad and how well they can play, they still have trouble finding their way through a well-organised defence, as their domestic form and both results against CSKA have shown. It will be interesting to see what Porto can make of them second time round. Manchester United? They just got beaten by Copenhagen. Yeah, it wasn't a full-strength side, but that illustrates their problem. I think it's probably better for Sir Alex to focus on winning the domestic battle rather than obsessing about another European victory - his squad's far too thin for both, especially considering the ridiculous amount of games in the English calender (2 domestic cups? what?) Injuries to a couple of players would damage the ability of his squad severely.
Liverpool can never be discounted. Rafa Benitez is very, very good at winning cup competitions, as his record shows. Contrast their domestic form with their CL form. At their best, they don't let anything through in defence and break decisively in attack. It might not be the type of football I like to watch, but it works very well. That said, you do get the sense that they could struggle a bit because of the amount of ground they need to make up domestically to even get near Chelsea and Manchester United at this point. Still, they look the most likely of the English clubs to challenge, with one exception I'll discuss at the end.
Moving on to Italy, I think a lot of people were discounting the Italian teams at the beginning for various reasons related to the match-fixing scandal. But they are notoriously good at cup competitions. Roma don't look like winners, frankly. Their squad is too small and lacking in quality to sustain compaigns on both fronts, especially since their fans want to have a go at winning Serie A this season.
Inter on the other hand do have a big enough squad, but they're also notoriously liable to fall apart in the later stages of big competitions. I watched them play very well in their win over Milan, but got the sense that a well-organised defence (which Milan's wasn't, I can assure you) could stop them. Crespo's a great forward, and Cruz is producing the goods as usual, but Ibrahimovic isn't the most consistent striker in the world and Adriano is next to useless at this point. They're fairly solid at the back, which is very useful in cup competitions, but somehow still fail to convince me that they have the will to go all the way. Opposing arguments are welcome - I'd love to see good old Zanetti lift Big Cup if my team can't.
Just like Liverpool, Milan can never been discounted, even when they seem to be a bit down domestically. They lack a forward who guarantees goals because they let their best go to Chelsea and didn't replace him. That's going to be a big problem when the going gets tough. Kaka can't hit hattricks in every game. And then there's the defence. I get that most of these guys are legends, and Maldini still looked great when he came on in the Milan derby, but I don't understand how the club could have allowed their backline to become such a collection of monuments without bringing in young talent.
Can't Evil Overlord Berlusconi splash out some money to pluck promising young defenders out of the smaller European leagues to learn under the greats? Costacurta is over 40, you know, and 32' Television Set Cafu (nickname courtesy of the Guardian) isn't getting any younger. Even Nesta hasn't been on form this season after suffering injuries before the World Cup. Anyway, they've got some problems both up front and in the back. I don't see them going all the way, unless of course the draw favours them ridiculously, as happened in the group stages.
I wrote a while ago about how Valencia are the only ones who look like potential winners of the Spanish big three. It looks even worse for those of us who love La Liga now. Real are looking better under Capello, who after all is very experienced with winning cup competitions, but I think they still have some issues to sort out at the back. The real test will be what Lyon can do at the Bernabeu. Real are capable of winning games even if they don't play particularly well, which is a plus in the CL, but right now they are very much reliant on the form of a few players up front (Van Nistelrooy most importantly, and Robinho). Injuries could be a problem as the season drags on because of that. They also need to fight on at least 2 fronts.
Capello's choices so far seems like an indication that he's not taking the Copa del Rey seriously, but that still leaves the league, where Barca aren't going to take anything lying down and a whole host of clubs are nipping at their heels. In conclusion, they haven't really put in a performance to convince me yet (keeping in mind I am the type of person who criticized the Barca midfield after we won 5-0), although there are some good signs.
Valencia are a tricky bunch. I thought they'd be proper contenders at the beginning of the season, both in Europe and at home. Their squad is huge, brimming with talent, and they are a very well organised team. They have 2 brilliant strikers in Villa and Morientes who can't stop scoring, great wingers, a balanced midfield, and a solid backline led by the formidable Roberto Ayala. But their luck with injuries has been absolutely rotten. Half the first choice XI is injured. They've lost their wingers, pretty much all the midfielders and a whole lot of defenders as well. If this injury problem isn't sorted out soon, they can forget about challenging for the league.
Happily they've already qualified for the knockout stages of the CL, so they can focus on getting a complete squad back together in time for those fixtures. If they can manage that then perhaps they will go far. I'm not convinced by the consistency level of Quique Sanchez Flores' team, though. They always seem to crumble at key moments - see their attempts to keep up with Barca in the last 2 seasons, one of which resulted in them being overtaken by Real Madrid near the end and the other just as unsuccessful. By losing to Celta and Racing successively they seem to be showing similar symptoms this time round. That's something they'll have to fix. The CL is unforgiving to teams who fall apart under pressure.
Now we come to the defending champions. Like I pointed out at the beginning, not the best start this time compared to their barnstorming group stage run last season. Admittedly we have a harder group this time, but that shouldn't be an excuse for a team with title winning aspirations. Before even talking about Barca's chances of winning, they have to get out of the group stage, which in itself is going to be very difficult. They need to beat Levski away and then Bremen at home. Bremen in particular are on fire at the moment. Like Deco said, Barca will need to battle to the death at Camp Nou to win on the last matchday.
Assuming we do scramble out of our group somehow even with no strikers (one crocked, one half-crocked, the rest aren't actual strikers), a lot will depend on when Samuel Eto'o gets back, and what kind of form he's in. I believe based on the Chelsea game that Barca as a whole are finally finding some form, but the striker position is still our crucial weakness.
Moving away from the big 3 leagues and on to other contenders. Lyon are arguably the most in-form team in the CL right now. Their problem seems to be falling apart at the later stages. It will remain to be seen whether or not they can change that this time round. One massive advantage is their formidable lead domestically - they really don't have to work too hard to win the title, which will leave more resources for challenging in Europe. I'll reserve judgement on them until they play Real again.
Bayern Munich started this season by declaring that they'd be happy to be in the knockout stages. They've got great results in the group stage, but I'm not convinced they have what it takes to go too much further. Poldoski hasn't settled in; Mark van Bommel, while a good player, is no Ballack; they look shaky at the back and have a tricky domestic campaign this year with Bremen looking stronger. All in all, I don't see what's going to take them far.
Speaking of Werder Bremen, they would have a fair shot of getting past the round of 16 if they managed to qualify. Now, given my allegiances and the situation in the group I have to hope that Barca get through instead, but if it does happen (to much wailing and gashing of teeth on my part) at least Bremen are a positive, attacking team. To qualify they have to get a result at home against Chelsea and then away to Barcelona. Given their recent domestic form that looks very possible, although last season they arrived in the Camp Nou on the back of similar barnstorming domestic feats and were well beaten.
That said, they have improved from last season. Klose is as deadly as ever, especially with young strike partner Aaron Hunt helping out up front. Frings is as good as ever, and even their much-mocked defence is improving with the impressive Naldo and new signing Mertesacker impressing in particular. When on form, they can trouble the defence of any team. I'm stuck hoping that they don't qualify, which is not a nice position to be in because they play lovely football. Still, how insane is group A? The league leaders of England, Spain and Germany battling it out for 2 places.
PSV have looked pretty good at times this season, and they're always contenders, but I'm not sure how genuine their challenge will prove to be in the later stages. Same goes with Porto, if they manage to get through the group stages. I think one of the dark horses this time around could come from their group, namely CSKA Moscow. Their defence is notoriously wall-like and they've got quite a few skillful Brazilians up front, not to mention an exciting homegrown winger. A Villarreal-like run? Maybe. They've got the necessary qualities.
All of which brings me to the team who look most like winners right now. That's Chelsea. They have a big squad, no matter what Mourinho insists, full of quality players. They have a healthy mix of experience and young talent. They have a manager who knows how to win in this competition. Their only weakness as far as I can see is vulnerability along the wings, but hardly any teams use the wings properly these days. Lyon might give them a hard time, but otherwise they have the potential to beat anyone else, and they know it. Of course, whether or not that attitude will prove to be a stumbling block depends on how well Mourinho can regulate his team's mental state, and he can do that very well indeed. Unless they meet nemesis Liverpool again, or an on-form Barca with Samuel Eto'o back, I don't think too many teams stand a chance against them.
Monday, September 18, 2006
the good and the bad in a dramatic day for club football
Quick reactions to some of the La Liga and EPL matches with longer reports to come.
Racing 0-3 Barca
Barca
The Good: not conceding a goal, keeping pace with the other league leaders, best start in 7 seasons, 4 goals in 3 games for Eto'o
The Bad: some defensive mix-ups, Messi not playing up to his usual (admittedly extremely high) standards, over-dependence on scoring first
Racing
The Good: starting well, some good defensive work
The Bad: horrid goalkeeping, having said 'keeper sent off
Valencia 2-0 Getafe
Valencia
The Good: Morientes getting a new lease of life back in Spain
The Bad: more injuries, Joaquin's anonymous performance
Getafe
The Good: not being outclassed in a hostile ground, still on course for a solid start
The Bad: El Pato finally conceding after 2 clean sheets
Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
The Good: steadying the ship after the loss to Lyon, Reyes' and Robinho's performance, Capello's substitutions
The Bad: struggling to break down a not very good Sociedad side, the performance of Raul and Guti, the injury to Roberto Carlos
Sociedad
The Good: keeping Real at bay for most of the match
The Bad: poor goalkeeping on the corner Reyes scored from, continuation of an indifferent start to the season, unlucky to go down to ten men
Athletic Bilbao 1-4 Atletico Madrid
Atletico
The Good: Aguero opening his account on his full debut, the Argentine contingent really beginning to shine
The Bad: poor Maxi Rodriguez being mis-identified as Maxi Lopez on more than one website. Okay, performing well without Torres leading perhaps to questions about how vital he is to the side and general overrated status (did you know that he was the player who gave the ball away most times in La Liga last season? Anyway, a rant for another day.)
Athletic Bilbao
The Good: at least they got one back with a nice goal
The Bad: everything else, unfortunately
Chelsea 1-0 Liverpool
Chelsea
The Good: Drogba's goal, the defence
The Bad: Ballack earning the first straight red card of his career after just 5 games for Chelsea.
Liverpool
The Good: improvements in defence
The Bad: awful finishing
Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal
United
The Good: their substitute keeper did well
The Bad: Rooney's indifferent performance, the entire midfield
Arsenal
The Good: finally winning, Cesc Fabregas
The Bad: more questions over Henry's form when he gets back to match fitness, now that they're winning without him?
Racing 0-3 Barca
Barca
The Good: not conceding a goal, keeping pace with the other league leaders, best start in 7 seasons, 4 goals in 3 games for Eto'o
The Bad: some defensive mix-ups, Messi not playing up to his usual (admittedly extremely high) standards, over-dependence on scoring first
Racing
The Good: starting well, some good defensive work
The Bad: horrid goalkeeping, having said 'keeper sent off
Valencia 2-0 Getafe
Valencia
The Good: Morientes getting a new lease of life back in Spain
The Bad: more injuries, Joaquin's anonymous performance
Getafe
The Good: not being outclassed in a hostile ground, still on course for a solid start
The Bad: El Pato finally conceding after 2 clean sheets
Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
The Good: steadying the ship after the loss to Lyon, Reyes' and Robinho's performance, Capello's substitutions
The Bad: struggling to break down a not very good Sociedad side, the performance of Raul and Guti, the injury to Roberto Carlos
Sociedad
The Good: keeping Real at bay for most of the match
The Bad: poor goalkeeping on the corner Reyes scored from, continuation of an indifferent start to the season, unlucky to go down to ten men
Athletic Bilbao 1-4 Atletico Madrid
Atletico
The Good: Aguero opening his account on his full debut, the Argentine contingent really beginning to shine
The Bad: poor Maxi Rodriguez being mis-identified as Maxi Lopez on more than one website. Okay, performing well without Torres leading perhaps to questions about how vital he is to the side and general overrated status (did you know that he was the player who gave the ball away most times in La Liga last season? Anyway, a rant for another day.)
Athletic Bilbao
The Good: at least they got one back with a nice goal
The Bad: everything else, unfortunately
Chelsea 1-0 Liverpool
Chelsea
The Good: Drogba's goal, the defence
The Bad: Ballack earning the first straight red card of his career after just 5 games for Chelsea.
Liverpool
The Good: improvements in defence
The Bad: awful finishing
Manchester United 0-1 Arsenal
United
The Good: their substitute keeper did well
The Bad: Rooney's indifferent performance, the entire midfield
Arsenal
The Good: finally winning, Cesc Fabregas
The Bad: more questions over Henry's form when he gets back to match fitness, now that they're winning without him?
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