Champions League results round up and quarters draw

I know I've said this enough times before, but: there really isn't much that can beat the Champions League for drama, is there?

Valencia CF 0 - 0 FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg, Valencia through on away goals)

Well done to Valencia. They had arguably the most difficult task of all the Spanish teams, and managed to succeed where Barca and Real failed. I'll be cheering them on now for the Cup (especially given the quarterfinal draw), although it's hard to see how they're going to make it with Baraja out for the rest of the season, Vicente injured yet again and bans sure to result from that rather comical brawl with Inter. Poor Argie Nicolas Burdisso is never going to look the same again.

Joking aside, the fact that Burdisso and Dacourt had to play in midfield because Inter were missing Vieira and Cambiasso had a big impact, which I predicted in my preview. And of course Valencia are excellent at grinding out results when they need to.

My prediction was: Valencia to squeak it, and I was right.

Chelsea FC 2 - 1 FC Porto (3-2 agg)

As predicted. Credit to Porto for at least giving it a good go, though. If this current team can hold on to their star players and continue to develop, they may as yet make something of themselves in European competition. Chelsea on the other hand are now favourites to win the Champions League. I'm not so sure, but they've got to be at least up there.

One last, overdue note: Didier Drogba. What a player. I still bitterly dislike his antics, but as the man himself pointed out once, you can't argue with his work rate. Or his goal-scoring record.

My prediction was: Chelsea to go through. Me and every other wannabe pundit in the world, and we were right.

Liverpool FC 0 - 1 FC Barcelona (2-2 agg, Liverpool through on away goals)

Light-hearted note first: the rule of the yellow away strip held (5 wins and 2 draws in Europe), which makes me ever more convinced that the awful orange away kit was a bad idea.

On a more serious note, this is not an easy game for me to write about, but I have to say, congratulations to Liverpool, they deserved to go through, and good luck to them for the rest of the competition. Fair play, too.

And good for Gudjohnsen - he desperately needed a goal. Sure, it didn't amount to anything, but in terms of pride and morale I think it was important to at least leave Anfield with a victory. After all, we all know what's coming up this weekend.

Olympique Lyonnais 0 - 2 As Roma (0-2 agg)

Wow, what an upset. I don't know about you, but this was the result that really shocked me. Great work by Roma, and terrible from Lyon, who no doubt expected much more from this campaign given their squad's potential and their progress through their domestic league.

My prediction was: Lyon to go through. Obviously, I was dead wrong.

Arsenal FC 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven (1-2 agg)

What a game from Alex! Must have been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster for the poor guy. Ronald Koeman's teams have this knack of reaching above their actual skill level through organisation, hard work and (it must be said) riding their luck. It's not pretty, but it's very effective. He did it with Benfica, and he's doing it again with PSV.

As for Arsenal, it was the same old story. They created enough chances to win the game many times over, but no one could put the ball in the back of the net. Believe me, Barca fans know all about that particular frustration, but that's the way football is, I suppose.

It's rather sad, really, since they do have a very talented young squad, and yet their season is pretty much over barring fighting Liverpool for 3rd place in the Premiership, which isn't exactly an inspiring battle-cry.

(I'm pleased to note that Sun Xiang of PSV became the first Chinese footballer to start a game in the Champions League. He also helped set up Alex's goal, if I'm not mistaken.)

My prediction was: I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close. I was wrong. It was close, but not like that.

Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Lille OSC (2-0 agg)

Not as easy as it could have been for Man Utd, but in this instance I can't really blame Sir Alex for not using 4-4-2, since he's missing so many attacking players. (But I have to say this: Silvestre instead of Heinze? Seriously?) United were not at their best against a determined but limited team, and probably made their fans suffer a bit unnecessarily.

I'm glad my wish that Larsson would give United fans something to remember him by came true. The man's a byword for reliability, and he's got a great sense of occasion. Of course he was going to score.

My prediction was: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2. Except they didn't, and laboured to victory instead.

FC Bayern Munich 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF (4-4 agg, Bayern go through on away goals)

Oh dear. You've got to feel sorry for Capello, his best laid plans shattered by an embarrassing slip-up in the first 12 seconds of the game. For God's sake, from their own kick-off! It has to be said that I think there isn't much difference between the two teams - in fact, Real can probably play better football. But they had very bad luck with injury to crucial team members (Beckham, Reyes, Cannavaro) and going to Germany is always difficult.

(Roberto Carlos has just announced he's leaving at the end of the season. I'm sorry to say this, given how great he used to be, but it's probably about time to quit while he's ahead.)

My prediction was: Bayern it is. And I was right. Real are just as fragile as Barca, so the kind of lead they had really wasn't enough.

AC Milan 1 - 0 Celtic FC (1-0 agg, Milan through after extra time)

A heroic performance from Celtic. I don't want to sound patronising, because after all they've worked so hard over the 2 legs with little reward, but I bet this did no harm to their reputation Europe-wide. Very impressive, and I look forward to seeing them back in the Champions League next season.

As for Milan, now that they're through to the quarterfinals I think they're proper contenders. But they're not a great team. (I haven't seen a truly great team in this year's Champions League yet.) Still, they're very good at the knockout stages of European competition. (Like I predicted: ability to score late goals when they really need to at home, check.)

My prediction was: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though. And that's exactly what happened. Almost depressingly predicable, that one.

the draw

1) Milan v Bayern Munich - ooh, intriguing. Very much in the traditional of grand old European showdowns. Except neither team are in top shape, really. I'd expect Milan to outclass Bayern, at least based on current showings.

2) PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool - but they just played each other in the group stages! I think Liverpool need to be wary of PSV, despite the results earlier in the season. Koeman's crafty coach, and so is Benitez. It's going to be interesting to watch the tactical battle, if nothing else. I think Liverpool will make it through this one.

3) Roma v Manchester United - unconventional match-up, but very interesting. Roma can give United trouble, especially if they're still having injury and form problems by then. A lot depends on how fit Roma's own razor-thin squad is, too. Hard to say, especially given United's need to concentrate on their title race. I'll delay judgement on this one, but I have a sneaking feeling that if United aren't careful, they could stumble here.

4) Chelsea v Valencia - this is the draw that made me happiest. Valencia are the kind of team that knows how to play against teams like Chelsea, and they have a canny coach in Quique Sanchez Flores who will be a match for Mourinho. The only problem is that Valencia's injuries are mounting up again: Baraja and Vicente for starters. I think those two are more important than whatever suspensions UEFA will hand out for the brawl against Inter, since Navarro isn't a starter and Marchena, who's the only other one up on charges, isn't essential either. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'll call it for Valencia. Barring yet another meltdown, I think they can do it.

semi-finals: W4 v W2, W3 v W1

My pick for the competition overall? The bookies in England have got the English clubs at the top of their lists, with Chelsea favourite. I can see that logic, since the 3 English clubs are fairly well-placed, but my instincts say not to rule out Milan or Valencia either.

Champions League last 16: previews and predictions

I was discussing Champions League prospects with someone, and he bought up the idea that this year could see all four semi-finalists end up being Premiership teams. Personally, I would like at least one La Liga team to advance at least to the semi-finals, although none of the 3 have it easy, unlike all 4 Premiership teams.

Valencia CF - FC Internazionale Milano (2-2 agg)

Valencia is in the best position of all the Spanish clubs, but they also have arguably the most formidable opposition. No offense to any Reds out there, but you've got to admit Inter's form is pretty frightening. So it's a good thing Valencia has those 2 valuable away goals. If David Albelda weren't suspended I'd be confident of Valencia holding Inter to a 0-0 draw at home to go through, but they're a lot less solid without him. To balance this out, Patrick Vieira and Esteban Cambiasso are both unavaliable for Inter through injury, which is bad news for them since even a squad as large as theirs can't compensate completely for the loss of 2 players who perform similar functions in midfield.

(Optimistic) prediction: Valencia to squeak it. Nothing against Inter, in fact I rather like them because of the Argentineans, but I'd like to have at least one Spanish club in it for the long haul. And, you know, only two Spanish clubs have ever won the Champions League.

Chelsea FC - FC Porto (1-1 agg)

Porto are a good team, but they're no match for Chelsea. This was a very good draw for the Blues, and I don't expect them to throw anything away. If Porto somehow manage to scrape through, it would be a minor miracle, because on quality terms they really haven't got enough to compete against Chelsea, even without John Terry.

Prediction: Chelsea to go through. As they say, anything can and has happened in the Champions League, but the Blues are simply too solid.

Liverpool FC - FC Barcelona (2-1 agg)

This is it. The big one. I've seen Liverpool bloggers referring to this game as season-defining for them, in light of Premiership and Cup results, and while Barca are still in with a shout for both the League and the Copa del Rey a lot depends on how this game plays out for us too. We all know about Liverpool's strength at Anfield and their ability to defend solidly and counter with great effect.

Barca, on the other hand, have to go all out. Which isn't too different from our usual approach anyway, but as Rijkaard says we really don't have much to lose at this point. The trident of Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Messi might finally be reunited, and persumably Deco and Thuram will be restored to the starting line-up. I have a hunch that Zambrotta will be used as left-back with Oleguer on the right, since Gio and Belletti have been left out of the squad. As for the rest, it's anyone's guess. Like the Barca press keep saying, we need a miracle. Or just the whole team, playing at their best - no, beyond their best.

Barca have been through a lot of ups and downs this season - from the sublime to the ridiculous; injuries, slumps, in-fighting, disappointment as well as those moments of great football we all live for. Frankly, I'm a little emotionally wrung out by it all. But that's football. I'm not going to predict anything for this game. We all know what the obvious conclusion is. The odds are stacked against Barca - and I have to point out, due in large part to the team's performance at the Nou Camp. But nevermind all that. I'm not even demanding a result that allows us to go through.

Remember that epic game at Stamford Bridge? No, not the triumph of last season, but the heartbreak of 2 seasons ago. It's a bitter memory, but I can't complain about the spirit in which the team conducted themselves on the pitch.

The football journalist James Lawton, recalling Barca's game against Benfica in the European Cup final of 1961, wrote this:

They were betrayed by some catastrophic goalkeeping and trailed 2-1 at half-time. In the second half Barça, inspired by Suarez, played astonishing football, hitting the bar and the post five times. But only one goal went in, and Barça, perversely, lost 3-2. However, one consolation was huge: it was the knowledge that beaten teams and football men can define themselves in defeat as well as victory...

That last line has resonated with me ever since I first read it. A club like Barca, which prides itself on a tradition of attacking football come hell or high water, should always keep that in mind. We all like to idealize our club's image, it's true, (and some would claim that we preach image because we're not as successful) but that's a clear statement of the ideal as any I've ever read.

I just want the boys to do their best. As long as I can see that they put everything into it, that's enough.

Visca el Barca!

(On a less serious note, this game will see the return of the much loved - well, by me anyway - fluorescent yellow away shirts used last season, which serve as the third kits this season. Contrary to reports, they're not being used because they're 'lucky'. Both Barca's home and away kits have been deemed to clash with Liverpool's famous red home jersey.)

Olympique Lyonnais - As Roma (0-0 agg)

According to all reports the first leg was dreadfully dull. Hopefully this time at least one of the teams will come out and play like they actually want to win it. Both teams are hungry for Champions League success, Lyon because their domination of Ligue 1 is getting a bit boring, Roma because they have no chance of winning Serie A despite their best efforts.

Prediction: Lyon have more in the tank and Roma can be rather neurotic away from home in Europe. Lyon to go through.

Arsenal FC - PSV Eindhoven (0-1 agg)

Arsenal did not do themselves justice in front of goal in the first leg. On paper, this was a plum draw for them. But that's Arsenal for you this season. They're more than capable of pulling out a result at Ashburton Grove, of course, and PSV haven't exactly been having the greatest of times themselves.

Prediction: Hard to call, since PSV are difficult to break down and the Gunners have had trouble in the past with teams like them. I'll go for Arsenal, but it'll be close.

Manchester United FC - Lille OSC (1-1 agg)

This tie has come to have a surprising amount of bad blood associated with it over the last few seasons. Not quite on the level of Chelsea-Barca or Real-Bayern, but close enough, especially with the mayhem in the first leg. This was the best possible draw for Man Utd, so they really should go through easily. Anything else, and they'll know they've screwed up royally. Personally, I don't care either way, but a Larsson goal would be nice. Farewell present and all, even though Ferguson is busy insisting to anyone who will listen that they won't miss him once he's gone. Of course you will, Sir Alex. We all end up wishing he'd stay longer. (Besides, isn't poor Ole injured again?)

Prediction: Manchester United can walk it at Old Trafford, if they remember to stick to 4-4-2.

FC Bayern Munich - Real Madrid CF (2-3 agg)

Until Mark van Bommel scored that cracking goal, it was all looking so good for Real. Now they have to go to Germany, where they've traditionally not enjoyed themselves and suffer for 90 minutes. Make no mistake, Bayern may not be very good this season, but they're still good enough to give Real trouble. Especially since poor David Beckham's injured. (I kind of feel terrible for him - what a time to get injured! Just when things are going so well...and now he's going to miss his last Clasico as well.) Beckham's potential replacement Reyes also got injured in the same game, which means that several more Capello exiles might have to be dusted off for a run out. On the Bayern side, they're missing Bastian Schweinsteiger through suspension, which is a big loss for them.

Prediction: difficult one to call, given that both sides are weakened and showing wobbly form. I think Real will really miss Beckham, though. I'd like to see Real scrape through (the more Spanish teams, the merrier), but my gut feeling is that's not too likely. Bayern it is.

AC Milan - Celtic FC (0-0 agg)

Celtic have done very well to come this far and still be in with a shot at progressing, but I felt that their big chance to grab an advantage was at home in the first tie. Milan are very, very good at scoring late goals when they need to at home in European competition, and they're not nearly as crap as they were at the beginning of the season. Besides, Celtic are generally crap away from home in Europe.

Prediction: Milan's experience will come through in the end. Hopefully Celtic will at least fight the good fight (not literally) though.


Ahh, the intrigue of the Champions League. For me, the World Cup is only thing that surpasses it for pathos and excitement.

Champions League last 16: early predictions

A lot can change between now and February, it's true, but the essential quality of a team who can win the Champions League shouldn't vary greatly from week to week anyway. So here are my early assessments, which I'll update as the ties get closer.

FC Barcelona-Liverpool FC

The pick of the bunch, for me, along with the next one down. There are obviously a lot of storylines surrounding the tie: the 05-06 holders versus the 04-05 winners; Garcia, Zenden and Reina returning to Catalonia, Rafa Benitez, Mark Gonzalez and Xabi Alonso trending familiar ground; and so on.

It's hard to predict a result, given the bumpy form of both teams (which suggest that neither are favourites to win the whole thing), although things seem to be looking up for Liverpool lately. A lot will depend on the injury situation and the fixture list, the latter of which will be a major disadvantage to Barca. It will be very difficult for the Spanish side, and I really doubt that the games will be great spectacles even if we do get through. Those who think otherwise need to check their expectations against the team's lack of consistency.

Real Madrid CF-FC Bayern Munich

A classic match-up between European giants. In a lot of ways, I think the sense of occasion surrounding this tie will be greater than the matches themselves. Real Madrid also lack a bit of consistency in their performances - sometimes they can actually produce pretty good football - but even when they play awful, negative stuff they can still get the result. Unfortunately Bayern aren't exactly the most exciting team to watch either, not to mention they are a diminished force this season with the personnel changes that have gone on. I think Real Madrid to go through, but not by a whole lot.

FC Internazionale Milano-Valencia CF

What kind of reward is Inter for topping your group? Poor Valencia. They do have an awful, awful record against Inter, including some big defeats at home. Plus, their situation in La Liga isn't very good right now, what with all the points they dropped when major players were injured. That said, they are looking much better now, and will probably have most of their players back by the time this game rolls around. It's hard to say what will happen, because both sides have a track record of letting a perfectly good thing implode on them.

Inter are expected to win Serie A this season, so they are under some pressure. Whether or not they will crack again this time is up in the air - the squad does seem to handle big occasions slightly better now. I'd still question Mancini's coaching skills, but what a squad he has at his disposal. But Valencia also have a large, high quality and - most impressively - very Spanish squad when they're not having an injury crisis. I have a feeling Valencia are getting tougher, just as Inter are. Another close one, I think. Valencia to give Inter some scares, but Inter to hold on -just - and go through.

AS Roma-Olympique Lyonnais

This should be interesting. Lyon are in great form despite having a very depleted forward line through injuries. In reality, they can replace almost anyone, even the excellent Fred, but as long as Juninho is there and firing they're okay. But if he gets injured they're going to struggle. Roma are notoriously poor travellers in Europe, but the home leg in Rome will provide a stiff test for Lyon's ambitions. The French champions have the advantage of not really having to think about their league, since they have a ridiculous lead there already, unlike Roma, who still dream of catching Inter and winning the title but have a bit of chasing to do. Lyon to go through pretty comfortably, as they always do at this stage.

Celtic FC-AC Milan

It depends on how much Milan want this. That seems like a ridiculous thing to say, but I can't really see what's preventing them from doing better, apart from desire. Even with injuries they should not be nearly this bad. Celtic are almost never to be beaten for their fierce desire and commitment in Europe, and their domestic situation is much better than Milan's.

Of course, if Milan can win the Champions League, they can stop worrying about securing 4th spot in Serie A. Let's face it, they shouldn't have been allowed into the competition this year at all, but they got a lifeline from UEFA, along with one of the easiest groups I've ever seen. Nice. If they don't win this tie it will be all their own fault.

Celtic are almost unbeatable at home, but Milan should really take the home leg, even if the injury problems persist. That said, right now Gila is the only one of their forwards actually scoring, which is not a good situation considering his record of 0 goals from the CL last season. Difficult one to call, as it depends on a lot of factors that can change very quickly, but for now I'll go for Milan to squeak through by a couple of late, late goals at home. As they always do.

FC Porto-Chelsea FC

Much as I would like Porto to pull off an upset - not for the reason you might suspect, but more because I would like on-form Argies Lucho Gonzalez and Lisandro Lopez to advance in the Champions League - I don't think it's going to happen. The English champions are too well-organised, too strong mentally and physically and too resourceful. Their current injury concerns and problems at the back should be sorted by then, too. Whatever their players are saying about concentrating on the Premiership, make no mistake, they think this is their year to win the CL. Tournament favourites (yes they are, no matter what anyone tries to spin you with) Chelsea to go through easily.

PSV Eindhoven-Arsenal FC

I actually forgot about this tie at first when I was writing this post, so that tells you just how interested I am. Still, Arsenal should beware PSV, who can play in the style that the Gunners find most frustrating and do it quite efficiently. It may not be pretty, but it might just work. Ronald Koeman is a pretty smart coach who's only getting better at this CL business.

A lot depends on which Arsenal turns up for the games, but I think PSV have an outside chance of an upset here. Not because they might outplay Arsenal, you understand. If PSV do end up going through, Arsene ain't going to be happy, because it will probably be because they've just parked the bus and hit them either on the counter or with a set-piece. Not good for football, but very possible.

Lille OSC-Manchester United FC

This game might seem even more boring than the previous one mentioned, but at least it has a nice backstory to it. Lille got two good results against United last season during a horrible group stage in which they managed to finish bottom, below what many British pundits call 'the French minnows'. Personally, I'd like to remind them that those so-called minnows are regulars in the last 16, and are always there or thereabouts in the French league, finishing either second or third behind the giants Lyon.

(Side note: If you look at their record, United really are generally very poor away from home in Europe, aren't they? And I thought Barca have been wobbly away from home this season...)

Anyway, now that Barca have avoided drawing United, my fondest hope in this tie is for Larsson to come on, score - preferably the decider - and leave a hero. Why not? It seems to happen everywhere he goes.

But that's just my personal fancy. Realisticly, United need to beware the same things as Arsenal - Lille are fairly tight at the back, not to mention mentally tougher from their trials and tribulations in Europe for the last few years. Witness their defeat of - a very poor, it must be said - Milan on the last match-day. Barring an injury crisis, United to have too much attacking power for the French team - but only if Fergie remembers to stick to 4-4-2.

Champions League: early predictions

I don't think we've seen a team that look like they could sweep all before them yet. Sure, that sometimes means nothing in this competition (see Liverpool 04-05, Porto 03-04) but what I mean in this case is a team who are showing consistent form in the group stages so far. Compare Barca's group stage results last year with what they're like this time around: in 05-06 they won all their group stage games, only drawing one away in Greece. They scored 16 goals and let in only 3. This time they're struggling to qualify. But more on that later.

Take a look at the usual suspects. While Arsenal should be contenders because of the quality of their squad and how well they can play, they still have trouble finding their way through a well-organised defence, as their domestic form and both results against CSKA have shown. It will be interesting to see what Porto can make of them second time round. Manchester United? They just got beaten by Copenhagen. Yeah, it wasn't a full-strength side, but that illustrates their problem. I think it's probably better for Sir Alex to focus on winning the domestic battle rather than obsessing about another European victory - his squad's far too thin for both, especially considering the ridiculous amount of games in the English calender (2 domestic cups? what?) Injuries to a couple of players would damage the ability of his squad severely.

Liverpool can never be discounted. Rafa Benitez is very, very good at winning cup competitions, as his record shows. Contrast their domestic form with their CL form. At their best, they don't let anything through in defence and break decisively in attack. It might not be the type of football I like to watch, but it works very well. That said, you do get the sense that they could struggle a bit because of the amount of ground they need to make up domestically to even get near Chelsea and Manchester United at this point. Still, they look the most likely of the English clubs to challenge, with one exception I'll discuss at the end.

Moving on to Italy, I think a lot of people were discounting the Italian teams at the beginning for various reasons related to the match-fixing scandal. But they are notoriously good at cup competitions. Roma don't look like winners, frankly. Their squad is too small and lacking in quality to sustain compaigns on both fronts, especially since their fans want to have a go at winning Serie A this season.

Inter on the other hand do have a big enough squad, but they're also notoriously liable to fall apart in the later stages of big competitions. I watched them play very well in their win over Milan, but got the sense that a well-organised defence (which Milan's wasn't, I can assure you) could stop them. Crespo's a great forward, and Cruz is producing the goods as usual, but Ibrahimovic isn't the most consistent striker in the world and Adriano is next to useless at this point. They're fairly solid at the back, which is very useful in cup competitions, but somehow still fail to convince me that they have the will to go all the way. Opposing arguments are welcome - I'd love to see good old Zanetti lift Big Cup if my team can't.

Just like Liverpool, Milan can never been discounted, even when they seem to be a bit down domestically. They lack a forward who guarantees goals because they let their best go to Chelsea and didn't replace him. That's going to be a big problem when the going gets tough. Kaka can't hit hattricks in every game. And then there's the defence. I get that most of these guys are legends, and Maldini still looked great when he came on in the Milan derby, but I don't understand how the club could have allowed their backline to become such a collection of monuments without bringing in young talent.

Can't Evil Overlord Berlusconi splash out some money to pluck promising young defenders out of the smaller European leagues to learn under the greats? Costacurta is over 40, you know, and 32' Television Set Cafu (nickname courtesy of the Guardian) isn't getting any younger. Even Nesta hasn't been on form this season after suffering injuries before the World Cup. Anyway, they've got some problems both up front and in the back. I don't see them going all the way, unless of course the draw favours them ridiculously, as happened in the group stages.

I wrote a while ago about how Valencia are the only ones who look like potential winners of the Spanish big three. It looks even worse for those of us who love La Liga now. Real are looking better under Capello, who after all is very experienced with winning cup competitions, but I think they still have some issues to sort out at the back. The real test will be what Lyon can do at the Bernabeu. Real are capable of winning games even if they don't play particularly well, which is a plus in the CL, but right now they are very much reliant on the form of a few players up front (Van Nistelrooy most importantly, and Robinho). Injuries could be a problem as the season drags on because of that. They also need to fight on at least 2 fronts.

Capello's choices so far seems like an indication that he's not taking the Copa del Rey seriously, but that still leaves the league, where Barca aren't going to take anything lying down and a whole host of clubs are nipping at their heels. In conclusion, they haven't really put in a performance to convince me yet (keeping in mind I am the type of person who criticized the Barca midfield after we won 5-0), although there are some good signs.

Valencia are a tricky bunch. I thought they'd be proper contenders at the beginning of the season, both in Europe and at home. Their squad is huge, brimming with talent, and they are a very well organised team. They have 2 brilliant strikers in Villa and Morientes who can't stop scoring, great wingers, a balanced midfield, and a solid backline led by the formidable Roberto Ayala. But their luck with injuries has been absolutely rotten. Half the first choice XI is injured. They've lost their wingers, pretty much all the midfielders and a whole lot of defenders as well. If this injury problem isn't sorted out soon, they can forget about challenging for the league.

Happily they've already qualified for the knockout stages of the CL, so they can focus on getting a complete squad back together in time for those fixtures. If they can manage that then perhaps they will go far. I'm not convinced by the consistency level of Quique Sanchez Flores' team, though. They always seem to crumble at key moments - see their attempts to keep up with Barca in the last 2 seasons, one of which resulted in them being overtaken by Real Madrid near the end and the other just as unsuccessful. By losing to Celta and Racing successively they seem to be showing similar symptoms this time round. That's something they'll have to fix. The CL is unforgiving to teams who fall apart under pressure.

Now we come to the defending champions. Like I pointed out at the beginning, not the best start this time compared to their barnstorming group stage run last season. Admittedly we have a harder group this time, but that shouldn't be an excuse for a team with title winning aspirations. Before even talking about Barca's chances of winning, they have to get out of the group stage, which in itself is going to be very difficult. They need to beat Levski away and then Bremen at home. Bremen in particular are on fire at the moment. Like Deco said, Barca will need to battle to the death at Camp Nou to win on the last matchday.

Assuming we do scramble out of our group somehow even with no strikers (one crocked, one half-crocked, the rest aren't actual strikers), a lot will depend on when Samuel Eto'o gets back, and what kind of form he's in. I believe based on the Chelsea game that Barca as a whole are finally finding some form, but the striker position is still our crucial weakness.

Moving away from the big 3 leagues and on to other contenders. Lyon are arguably the most in-form team in the CL right now. Their problem seems to be falling apart at the later stages. It will remain to be seen whether or not they can change that this time round. One massive advantage is their formidable lead domestically - they really don't have to work too hard to win the title, which will leave more resources for challenging in Europe. I'll reserve judgement on them until they play Real again.

Bayern Munich started this season by declaring that they'd be happy to be in the knockout stages. They've got great results in the group stage, but I'm not convinced they have what it takes to go too much further. Poldoski hasn't settled in; Mark van Bommel, while a good player, is no Ballack; they look shaky at the back and have a tricky domestic campaign this year with Bremen looking stronger. All in all, I don't see what's going to take them far.

Speaking of Werder Bremen, they would have a fair shot of getting past the round of 16 if they managed to qualify. Now, given my allegiances and the situation in the group I have to hope that Barca get through instead, but if it does happen (to much wailing and gashing of teeth on my part) at least Bremen are a positive, attacking team. To qualify they have to get a result at home against Chelsea and then away to Barcelona. Given their recent domestic form that looks very possible, although last season they arrived in the Camp Nou on the back of similar barnstorming domestic feats and were well beaten.

That said, they have improved from last season. Klose is as deadly as ever, especially with young strike partner Aaron Hunt helping out up front. Frings is as good as ever, and even their much-mocked defence is improving with the impressive Naldo and new signing Mertesacker impressing in particular. When on form, they can trouble the defence of any team. I'm stuck hoping that they don't qualify, which is not a nice position to be in because they play lovely football. Still, how insane is group A? The league leaders of England, Spain and Germany battling it out for 2 places.

PSV have looked pretty good at times this season, and they're always contenders, but I'm not sure how genuine their challenge will prove to be in the later stages. Same goes with Porto, if they manage to get through the group stages. I think one of the dark horses this time around could come from their group, namely CSKA Moscow. Their defence is notoriously wall-like and they've got quite a few skillful Brazilians up front, not to mention an exciting homegrown winger. A Villarreal-like run? Maybe. They've got the necessary qualities.

All of which brings me to the team who look most like winners right now. That's Chelsea. They have a big squad, no matter what Mourinho insists, full of quality players. They have a healthy mix of experience and young talent. They have a manager who knows how to win in this competition. Their only weakness as far as I can see is vulnerability along the wings, but hardly any teams use the wings properly these days. Lyon might give them a hard time, but otherwise they have the potential to beat anyone else, and they know it. Of course, whether or not that attitude will prove to be a stumbling block depends on how well Mourinho can regulate his team's mental state, and he can do that very well indeed. Unless they meet nemesis Liverpool again, or an on-form Barca with Samuel Eto'o back, I don't think too many teams stand a chance against them.

Round-up of Champions League results and previews for the Wednesday games

Results so far

The first half of match day 2 of the Champions League has come and gone, with few surprise results. Madrid and Raul threatened to make me eat my words with a 5-1 pasting of Dynamo Kiev in which the latter scored a brace, but given how Dynamo went down to Steaua (who themselves got thrashed 3-0 by Lyon) I’m not quite convinced yet. Interesting to note that despite press reports alleging van Nistelrooy’s incompetence in the game against Betis (wildly exaggerated, of course) and playing up Ronaldo’s inclusion, the Brazilian only made a cameo appearance. Probably a wise move by Capello, as to me van Nistelrooy and Reyes are their most important offensive players right now. The coach sounded a note of caution after the match in an attempt to cut down on the hype that will no doubt be generated by the press, which I see as a great move, so all credit to him. The Dynamo coach on the other hand said that Madrid would probably be in the final. I’ll reserve judgment on that front , but Capello is very good in Europe, so who knows?

Manchester United were unconvincing against Benfica but came away with a crucial away win, which is really all that counts at this point. Sir Alex Ferguson’s decision to rest Louis Saha for the EPL game at the weekend - lambasted by the press and some fans - seems somewhat vindicated now since he scored the only goal. Wayne Rooney continues to struggle with form as the criticisms pile on. I have to say, I’m not his greatest fan – in fact, most of the time I think he’s a bit overrated, but right now I feel bad for him. It seems that with young prodigies like him, Messi, C Ronaldo and Aguero, they’re so hyped up that any slump in form is immediately jumped on by the circling hordes. People forget that the oldest of the four mentioned above is only 21, and the youngest barely 18. An ordinary person of that age would probably be out skipping classes, getting drunk and avoiding responsibility, while these guys have a hell of a lot on their shoulders. I’m not saying that they should have a lower standard imposed on them – after all, if they’re good enough to start for a big team then they should perform. But what I am saying is that anybody can have a couple of bad matches, even prodigies. Just lay off until you’re sure that they’re really having a slump (see: Adriano - hasn’t scored for Inter for almost half a year, now that’s a real slump).

Back to the topic at hand, and Milan failed to get past Lille’s tight defence in France, ending up with a 0-0 draw to take home. No real surprises so far, unless you count out-of-form and injury-stricken Hamburg’s loss to CSKA Moscow, but in reality the Russian side who won the UEFA Cup two seasons ago were always going to be challengers for at least that UEFA Cup spot. With the speed of change going on in Clubs like CSKA who have lots of money poured into them quickly a poor record in the past doesn’t count for all that much.

Second half preview

Spartak Moscow v Sporting Lisbon

A potentially tricky away tie for Sporting after the heady heights of that upset victory over Inter. It’s never easy to play in Russia, but the visiting team can be thankful that it’s not quite winter yet, so at least they won’t freeze to death. Spartak got thrashed 4-0 by Bayern in their first game, collapsing in the second half after holding their German hosts to a 0-0 draw for the first. I’ll be looking out for this result mainly because of Spartak’s two Argentines, Clemente Rodriguez at left-back and eternally unsettled Fernando Cavenaghi at center forward. Rodriguez is a regular starter and provides a threat going forward, but Cavenaghi – once so good in Argentina’s River Plate has yet to adapt to his surroundings 2 seasons in and may not play. I think both clubs would be content with a draw here, but a win would mean a lot to Sporting who now have hopes of qualifying for the second round while Spartak would just be happy to finally win a game in the Champions League.

Bremen v Barcelona

Mark van Bommel seems to have enjoyed his one-season stay at Barca immensely, despite not getting enough regular playing time, an unfortunate consequence of a large squad which saw him and the club part amiably at the beginning of this season. He’s now a mainstay for Bayern Munich, attempting to pick up where Michael Ballack left off. Why is this discussion part of the Barca preview instead of the Bayern one? Well, he’s given a fairly gushy interview to a German magazine basically telling Bremen what they already know – that playing an open attacking game against Barca is very risky.

He’s got a bit of a reputation as a trouble-maker, but I’ve never seen any signs of that in his time at Barca. In fact, he seemed pretty popular within the squad, never complained about lack of playing time and made the best of his opportunities. As a result Barca fans were all wishing him well when he chose to leave, and he’s been very good about his departure. I was worried that he’d have some unhappy views to air, since that seems to be the trend for players moving clubs right now, but he’s been a perfect gentleman about it, so all credit to him. I don’t think many could complain about a one-year stay that yielded a Spanish title and a Champions League winner’s medal, but you never know these days.

Turning to actual team news, Miroslav Klose could play despite not being 100% match fit after Bremen failed to win all the Bundesliga matches that he missed through injury. The attacking axis of him and Torsten Frings is undoubtedly Bremen’s main threat, so they’ll be hoping those two have a blistering game. Playmaker Diego looks set to play after recovering from injury. They’ve had a bad run of form recently and a win would really help the team get back on track.

Barcelona have continued their policy of rotation, leaving Marquez, Gio, Saviola and the still injured Ezquerro out of the squad. This means the starting line-up will look something like this (4-3-3): Valdes; Zambrotta/Belletti, Puyol, Thuram, Sylvinho; Edmilson/Motta, Xavi, Iniesta/Deco; Giuly, Eto’o, Ronaldinho.

The reason there are so many uncertainties in the above is because I’m not sure how concerned Rijkaard is about fatigue after that hard-fought game against Valencia. Zambrotta would play most games because of his defensive abilities, but against a team like Bremen who play in a similar style to Barca the defensively dubious attacker Belletti might be in his element. I’m also not at all sure which of the midfield trio of Xavi, Iniesta and Deco will play. Personally, I’d want to rest Deco because he looks like he needs it after playing every match so far. Rijkaard might not want to take that risk, though. In any case, I would like to see Iniesta play some part, taking the place of either of the other two, starting or coming in from the bench. Edmilson is popularly thought of as better than Motta in the holding midfield position, but after his unconvincing performance against Valencia I’m not sure he’d be better than Motta against a fast team like Bremen. Giuly should start as a matter of rotation, with Messi or Gudjohnsen perhaps coming in from the bench later on.

This has the potential to be a very good game between two sides that both use positive, attacking tactics – just the kind of spectacle that, personally speaking, I’d like to see more of in club football. I’m hoping it lives up to expectations, since last year’s group stage opener (also away at Bremen) resulted in a scrappy 2-0 win that really flattered Barca. A better game this time would be great. Of course, beyond that winning the game is the most important thing for us in this very difficult group. Bremen are probably my second favourite side in the group and I genuinely hope they qualify, but not at Barca’s expense. So with no disrespect to the German side, this is a game the defending champions should be looking to win. There’s no excuse for not coming up with a result as Bremen will not employ stifling defensive tactics like Valencia. In fact, their defence is really pretty poor. If the offence finally gets itself together, Barca should be fine. If not, we could be in a bit of trouble.

Levski v Chelsea

The big question hovering over this tie seems to be the fitness of John Terry. Late news seems to be that he will be fit to play, although knowing Mourinho I’m not sure how far that can be trusted. Either way, Chelsea will be looking to pick up a comfortable win here, even though playing away in Bulgaria is sure to be difficult. Since Michael Ballack is available, they’ll probably revert to the diamond formation that so stifled Frank Lampard before Ballack’s suspension in the EPL. Whether it’s a good or bad thing, you decide. Andriy Shevchenko to score, I say. He’s such a class act that it’s bound to happen sometime.

As for Levski, having handled the roughest start a Champions League rookie could have (away to the defending champs) with admirable spirit, things aren’t going to get easier. A thrashing by Barca in Camp Nou shouldn’t have dampened spirits too much since it was so predictable, and they should run out with the same positive attacking mentality that they showed in the last game. This is just as suicidal against Chelsea as it is against Barca, but good on them for doing what I think is the right thing. Here’s hoping they avoid another thrashing, although I can’t see past a Chelsea win.

Inter v Bayern

One of the big ties of this round, along with Valencia-Roma and to a lesser extent Barca-Bremen. On paper this is an exciting clash between the champions of the German league and the (non-cheating) champions of Italy, but in reality I’m not sure either of these teams have really lived up to their billing so far this season.

Let’s start with Inter. The ‘crazy Inter’ cliché is overused and exaggerated, but it is true that their ability to fail against all odds is kind of amazing. While not being a fan of any team in particular in Serie A, I usually have one eye on Inter because of the sheer number of Argentinean players in the team. It was great to see Cambiasso start the season with a brace in a game against Fiorentina but worrying when the defence then conceded 2 goals when leading 3-0. The same thing happened against Chievo, Inter storming to a 4-0 lead which included a brace by on-fire Hernan Crespo and a header by fellow Argentine Walter Samuel. Then they managed to concede 3 in the last 20 minutes. A win against Roma helped them bounce back from a disappointing defeat in their opening CL game against Sporting Lisbon, and they’ll be looking to pick up points here to steady the boat, qualification-wise.

In team news, Recoba, Argentines part-time striker Julio Cruz and team mainstay Cambiasso are all injured, while Patrick Viera is suspended for that red card picked up against Sporting Lisbon. This should pose no problems given the depth of the Inter squad, with versatile Argentineans (see what I mean about the number of Argentine players?) captain Javier Zanetti and Santiago Solari able to slot in to any number of positions on the field. Crespo is of course one of the most on-form strikers in Europe right now, and I’ll stick my neck out here – Hernan to score at least one.

Similarly, Bayern have not been having a happy fun time at all, although they’ve climbed back up to the top of the league table. They looked particularly poor in pre-season with new signing Lukas Podolski nowhere near match fitness, especially in that 4-0 thrashing by Barcelona at Camp Nou, which was particularly embarrassing given that Barca used a completely different XI for the first and second halves, managing to beat them with both (3-0 first half, 1-0 second). After purchasing the aftementioned Mark van Bommel from Barca they’re looking better in midfield, but I’m not quite convinced that they have the quality to go far in Europe. They’re known domestically as a utilitarian side that grinds out results, but in the Champions League lately there hasn’t even been that, with last season’s embarrassing thrashing by AC Milan no doubt still on the mind of their fans. In Bayern’s last game they took their sweet time breaking down Spartak Moscow in the last game before scoring 4 goals late in the second half at home. On a positive note, though, they have no injury worries for this clash.

Another difficult visit to the always fearsome San Siro beckons for the German champions, and it’s difficult to call this one with both teams displaying somewhat inconsistent form so far. Inter will be looking to win, no doubt about that, but quite honestly I think Bayern would not complain about a draw.

Liverpool v Galatasaray

No one in this group seems to know how to score so far, but with Liverpool’s luck improving in front of goal maybe that’ll change. Galatasaray are difficult to play at home but notoriously poor travelers, so Liverpool should be looking to pick up points at Anfield. Anything less than a victory would be unacceptable.

Bordeaux v PSV

Bordeaux will be difficult to break down at home, but PSV should still expect to pick up points here given their league form and the fact that after drawing at home to Liverpool they kind of need them. I’m not all that certain that the Dutch side will achieve that here though. It’s a good chance for Bordeaux to show that they have quality going forward as well as in defence. 0-0 draw, anyone?

Shakhtar v Olympiakos

The Greek side managed to put 2 goals past a normally water-tight Valencia defence at home but managed to concede 4 for the first win by a Spanish side in Greece. Still-dangerous Rivaldo’s injury is a major drawback for them, especially given their poor away form in the CL. Shakhtar will be looking to get 3 crucial points with the advantage of playing at home, since they also travel badly, having been beaten in the first game 4-0 by Roma despite putting up a decent fight for the first half.

Valencia v Roma

Roma are yet another team who don’t travel all that well, although their recent impressive form in Serie A and a good win over Shakhtar means that they’ll be confident going into this game of getting a result in the noisiest stadium in Spain, never a easy place to for away teams to play in.

Valencia on the other hand are riding high after their impressive away draw against Barcelona and are in great form on all fronts. Their only worries might be the increasingly long injury list and fatigue from a hard-fought game in the Camp Nou, as their large squad is stretched to the limit. Marchena, Albiol, Baraja and del Horno are all injured, which is concerning but not a big problem since they’re all replaceable. What might be worrying Valencia fans more is the sight of their usually indefatigable captain David Albelda getting cramp near the end of the Barca game, and the suspicion that he rushed his comeback from injury to play.

If exhaustion doesn’t set in then I think Valencia should win this game. They’re playing well as a team with a tight defence and some great players going forward. Fernando Morientes nabbed a perfect hat-trick in the last game, scoring with left foot, right foot and his head, but I think it’s David Villa’s turn this time. Valencia to win with at least a goal from the best Spanish striker around.

(By the way, something that I forgot to mention about Valencia last time – they’re really lacking a dead-ball specialist now that Aimar is gone. Villa isn’t bad, but he’s not very consistent on free-kicks, and Joaquin is only accurate from one side.)